It has been over a month since my last update, and while I stated that my next post would be on catchers, I have decided to post my predictions for each division instead. I will post my entry on catchers when I have more time for analyzation. However for now, here is how I see every division playing out (Note: I am not going into a lot of detail for my reasoning, and the win-loss record prediction is only considering the 162 game season, not considering if each team in the division can win the amount of games predicted because of how many times they play each other). I will list each division in descending order. I will post two divisions at a time, starting with the AL & NL East.
AL East: This is without a doubt the hardest division to predict on paper.
1) Tampa Bay Rays (94-68): The Rays are probably the best run organization in the Majors. The team has a talented pitching rotation which is led by the reigning AL CY Award winner, David Price and 2011 AL Rookie of the Year winner, Jeremy Hellickson. The bullpen situation seems to always work for them as Fernando Rodney posted a ridiculous 0.60 ERA last year after posting a career ERA in the mid 4.00. Offense is always a concern for this team, but they manage to get by and play tight ball games, especially if Evan Longoria stays healthy.
2) Toronto Blue Jays (92-70): This is the best team in the AL East on paper. The Blue Jays underwent a complete overhaul in the offseason, as they acquired Mark Buerhle, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Emilio Bonafacio, and others from the Miami Marlins. They also netted the reigning NL CY Award winner R.A. Dickey and his battery mate Josh Thole from the Mets. Put these new pieces with the pieces the Jays already have like, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encanacion and others, and this is a very formidable ball team. However, the pitching rotation looks like a weakness. Aside from R.A. Dickey, there is not much depth to the rotation, I mean, former ace Rickey Romero is back in Single A making over $7 million. Aside from the rotation, the chemistry of this team may not mesh.
3) Boston Red Sox (88-74): The Red Sox have undergone a complete overhaul of there own. Over the past year, the organization has traded Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett and others. This team no longer contains many of the players fans came to admire in previous seasons, but they have reloaded with the likes of Ryan Dempster, Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli for the upcoming season. Those are some decent players, and they have all been to the post season within the last two years. However, health will be key for the Red Sox this season, as they will need players like Ellsbury and Pedria to stay healthy all year especially with David Ortiz sidelined to begin the season. Not only that, but they will need their starting rotation to dominate the way it has in Spring Training in order to have a shot at the playoffs, but this is a hungry organization that has not seen postseason baseball since 2009 so don't count them out.
4) Baltimore Orioles (85-77): The Orioles had a nice season last year, and while I believe they'll be a winning ball club in 2013 I don't believe they will be heading back to the postseason. Baltimore's rotation could use a boost, but Jason Hammel is solid and Chris Tillman is a promising young arm. The offense is going to need to produce, and things need to break the Orioles way much like it did last year if they want to make it back to the postseason. However, the young Manny Machado should give the Orioles a boost and they should have a lights out bullpen again this year. If the Orioles can duplicate their success from 2012, they can get back to the postseason.
5) New York Yankees (83-79): The Yankees have won the AL East the past three seasons, and I'm not doubting that they could do it again, but they have injury concerns surrounding Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson and Mark Texeria. That leaves Robinson Cano as the lone hitting star for the Yankees, at least for the first week or so. The rotation is solid however, and the bullpen features the greatest closer ever in Mariano Rivera, so they should be able to tread water, but they will need help from an unlikely source(s) such as, the recently acquired Vernon Wells. Even considering the information mentioned above, the Yankees know how to win and no one should be surprised if they capture their fourth consecutive AL East crown.
Overview of Division: No matter how this division shakes out at the end of 2013, no one should be surprised by the result.
NL East: I believe this division will stack up in the same order as it did in 2012.
1) Washington Nationals (100-62): The Nationals are full of young talent, and they have veteran presence. The team was more injury prone than people realize in 2012, and they still led baseball in wins at 98. The Nationals may have the best rotation in baseball top to bottom with: Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman, Ross Detwiler and Dan Harren. The offense is loaded with talent and features phenom Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Laroach, Denard Span and others. The bullpen is solid too. The pen features Tyler Clippard, Drew Storen, Rafeal Soriano and others. Overall, the Nationals are probably the best team as a whole, at least on paper.
2) Atlanta Braves (92-60): The Braves have finished second in the division for the last handful of seasons. They are a consistent team that knows how to win baseball games. Their rotation may not quite stack up with the Nationals, or even the Phillies for that matter, but they have a rotation that has some upside and veteran presence. The rotation includes Tim Hudson, Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, Paul Maholm and Julio Teheran. Not to mention Brandon Beachy who should return sometime in June or July. The rotation may not contain the household names like the Phillies and Nationals, but it is still a solid rotation. The Braves also added power this season, acquiring Justin Upton from the Arizona Diamondbacks and B.J. Upton through free agency. However they lost Martin Prado in the deal, and while this lineup is full of power, it also looks strikeout prone. The Atlanta bullpen is the best in the Majors, as it features Jordan Walden, Johnny Venters, Eric O'Flaherrety, and dominant closer Craig Kimbrel.
3) Philadelphia Phillies (86-76): The Phillies had a down season in 2012. They suffered from injuries, just like every MLB team, but they unlike others were unable to overcome that obstacle. All-Stars Ryan Howard and Chase Utley were out until about mid-season, and former staff ace Roy Halladay suffered from back and shoulder injuries and looks to be declining. Cliff Lee had a better year than most people realize and was bad luck prone. Still, the Phillies are full of players who know how to win, and if the starting staff holds up, it may still be one of the best in baseball. However, Halladay will need to bounce back, Cole Hamels needs a repeat or better of 2012, Lee needs better luck, Kyle Kendrick needs to be successful like he was the last half of 2012 and John Lanan has to be an innings eater that keeps the team in ball games. The offense needs to stay healthy, and the team needs to play solid defense. Carlos Ruiz will be missing the first 25 games due to suspension, but surely the team will be fine until he returns. The bullpen should be better in large part thanks to Mike Adams. The Phillies need a lot to break their way if they want to get back to the postseason and health is the biggest factor.
4) New York Mets (70-92): The Mets were competitors in the first half of 2012, but they went free falling in the later half of 2012. They have traded CY Award winner R.A. Dickey, not to mention Johan Santana may not pitch this season or ever again, and the pitching staff is weaker because of it. However, they do have some young pitchers who have great potential in Jon Niese, Dillion Gee, Matt Harvey and others. The bullpen was one of if not the worst in 2012 and probably won't be much better in 2013. The offense is nothing to brag about, other than David Wright and potential someone like Ike Davis, but Travis D'Arnaud could make an impact at some point in 2013. Despite all this, I believe the Mets will outperform expectations.
5) Miami Marlins (60-102): Well, the Marlins forayed into the free agent market in 2012, picking up Jose Reyes, Mark Buherle and others, and were picked to go to the World Series. However, they failed miserably and by the end of 2012, all of their free agent signings were gone, along with others like Josh Johnson and Hanley Ramirez. The Marlins recieved plenty of minor league talent in their dealings, but they failed to acquire any prospect(s) that knowingly have future major potential. They got a bunch of salary relief, but that was about it. The offense does not look good outside of Giancarlo Stanton. Ditto, the pitching rotation outside of Ricky Nolasco and the bullpen outside of Steve Cishek. The Marlins most likely won't win this season or anywhere in the near future.
Overview of Division: The Nationals will probably win this division, but don't count the Braves or Phillies out, especially if things break right for those teams.
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