Compare and Contracts Continued...

Happy New Year's Eve Everyone!

Continuing on from my previous blog post...


   Cole Hamels: Hamels signed a contract extension before the 2012 trade deadline with the Philadelphia Phillies. The contract is worth approximately $132 Million/6 years, and a seventh year option could push the deal to range between $152-$156 Million/7 years. Hamels will earn slightly more than Cain over the guaranteed life of his contract, but Hamels will still fall $15 million short of the contract recently inked by Greinke. Hamels was expected to sign for more money than Cain, and Cain's contract was probably a starting/reference point in negotiations. Unlike Greinke and Cain, Hamels is left handed, and elite starting left handed pitchers like Hamels are something of a rarity, and thus are expected to be paid higher premiums than their peers. So how exactly does Hamels match up with the two aforementioned starting pitchers? Over parts of seven MLB seasons, Cole Hamels has a career win-loss record of 91-60, an ERA of 3.34, he has 1,376.2 IP, and has struck out 1,307 batters. Hamels has compiled these numbers in 212 career games, fewer than Greinke and Cain. While, Hamels has exceeded Cain in strikeouts, he trails Greinke (barely), but keep in mind that Greinke and Cain have pitched in quite a few more games than Hamels, and that alone attributes a ton to the stat differential. Despite all of this, Hamels has as many wins as Greinke and more wins than Cain, while boasting a better winning percentage than both. Examining the advanced stats, Hamels has compared a career WAR of 27.4. Henceforth, Hamels trails Cain and Greinke in WAR, but if Hamels had as much service time as Cain and Greinke, he would probably easily surpass the two in WAR. As far as ERA+ is concerned, Hamels has averaged a career ERA+ value of 126. This value bests Cain's 124 and Greinke's 114, but like Cain, Hamels has never won a CY Young Award.(The highest Hamels has ever placed on a ballot is fifth in 2011). However just like Cain, Hamels has appeared in three All-Star games, while Greinke has only appeared in one.

Hamels Post Season Numbers:

Year	W	L	ERA	IP	SO
2007	0	1	4.05	6.2	7
2008	1	0	0.00	8.0	9
2008	2	0	1.93	14.0	13
2008	1	0	2.77	13.0	8
2009	0	1	7.20	5.0	5
2009	1	0	6.52	9.2	7
2009	0	1	10.38	4.1	3
2010	1	0	0.00	9.0	9
2010	0	1	3.00	6.0	8
2011	1	0	0.00	6.0	8
5 Yrs (10 Series)	7	4	3.09	81.2	77
5 NLDS	3	2	1.82	34.2	38
3 NLCS	3	1	3.64	29.2	28
2 WS	1	1	4.67	17.1	11

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/11/2013.

So, how does Justin Verlander compare to Greinke, Cain, and Hamels?

   Justin Verlander: I know what some people are thinking. How can you compare Justin Verlander, arguably the best pitcher in the game to the aforementioned pitchers above? Well as crazy as it sounds, Justin Verlander has stats which are more comparable to Greinke, Cain, and Hamels than one would initially guess. Over parts of eight Major League Seasons, Verlander has posted some outstanding numbers. Verlander has a career win-loss record of 124-65, an ERA of 3.40, he has 1,553.2 IP, and has struck out 1,454 batters. Yes, Verlander is the cream of the crop, he has outperformed Greinke, Cain and Hamels in every category, except for his ERA. Verlander's ERA is lower than Greinke's, but Verlander has a career ERA that is higher than both Cain and Hamels. Aside from the ERA category, Verlander has performed much better than the three other top flight starters...at least at first glance, but digging deeper into the stats, the debate gets even better. Verlander has posted a career ERA+ of 128, which is only a mere two points higher than Hamels 126. But WAR heavily favors Verlander, as he has compiled a career WAR of 34.2, which far exceeds the value of the previously mentioned pitchers. As far as accolades go, Verlander is a five time All-Star at the age of 29, he won the CY Young Award in the AL and was named the MVP in 2011, and he was named the American League Rookie of the Year. Looking at the stats and accolades and comparing Verlander to the pitchers mentioned above, I wonder if Verlander had hit the open market this offseason what his contract would have been. A $180 Million/6 year with an option for a seventh year that could push the contract to $215 Million/7 years, this contract is probably not far fetched. This would provide Verlander with an Average Annual Value of $30 million over the six guaranteed years with a $35 million option for the seventh year. However, if people look at postseason stats, Verlander's value might take a hit...as Cain is the superior postseason pitcher of the group. However Verlander pitched well in the postseason this year.

Verlander's Post Season Numbers:

Year	W	L	ERA	IP	SO
2006	0	0	5.06	5.1	5
2006	1	0	6.75	5.1	6
2006	0	2	5.73	11.0	12
2011	1	0	5.00	9.0	12
2011	1	1	5.56	11.1	13
2012	2	0	0.56	16.0	22
2012	1	0	1.08	8.1	3
2012	0	1	11.25	4.0	4
3 Yrs (8 Series)	6	4	4.22	70.1	77
3 ALDS	3	0	2.67	30.1	39
3 ALCS	3	1	4.32	25.0	22
2 WS	0	3	7.20	15.0	16

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/11/2013.

   People can argue and use different stats all day to prove which one of these four pitchers is the best, and there is probably not a wrong answer. I did not compare these four pitchers to give readers a clear-cut winner, I did so in order to allow the readers to think about contract values and how pitchers stack up to one another. Each of these pitchers has their perks. Greinke has a wipe-out curveball, Cain knows how to pitch and has thrown a perfect game, Hamels has a devestating change-up, and Verlander has thrown two career no-hitters. It's goood to debate about topics like this, but I would like to remind everyone that all of these pitchers are entering/in the prime of their careers, and I believe the best is yet to come from all of these pitchers. I want to remind my readers not to get so caught up in debates or hating the teams these players pitch for or even the pitchers themselves that they forget to enjoy and marvel at the performances and careers of each of the individuals.

I hope that everyone has a Good Start to a Happy New Year, May God Bless each and everyone of you throughout this New Year!

Compare and Contracts

    In this entry I am going to compare the three players, mentioned in my previous blog entry, to players that seem to share similar stats. I will begin with Zack Greinke, whom I am going to compare to Matt Cain, Cole Hamels and Justin Verlander:

   Zack Greinke: As I established in my previous blog entry, Greinke signed the richest contract for a right handed pitcher in MLB history at $147 million/6 years. That is obviously a ton of money, and while Greinke has nice credentials and value, it is tough to believe that he received this type of money compared to some of his closely comparable peers.  Over parts of nine MLB seasons, Greinke has a win-loss record of 91-78, an ERA of 3.77, he has 1,492 IP, and he has struck out 1,332 batters. These are the stats people tend to look at to determine if a pitcher is a legitimate "Ace". Greinke boasts a pretty good stat line especially since he has pitched the bulk of his career in the American League. Some would argue that comparing one pitcher's value and ERA to another pitcher's value and ERA is not a justifiable basis for comparison due to various factors. Therefore, I will take this analyzation a little further. Greinke has accumulated a career WAR(Wins Above Replacement) of 29.5. The statistic WAR indicates how much more valuable a player is than his replacement would be. Greinke has a cumulative career ERA+ of 114. ERA+ adjusts to a pitcher's league and ballpark factors. The higher the ERA+, the better the pitcher is. Greinke has very respectable stats, and he will provide a nice 1-2 punch in the Dodgers rotation with Clayton Kershaw.  He won the AL CY Young award in 2009, but  has only one All-Star appearance. Looking at accolades and statics objectively, he does not quite measure up with Cain, Hamels, and Verlander.

   Matt Cain: Cain is the closest comparison to Greinke in this group. Cain is right handed just like Greinke, Cain has been in the majors through parts of eight major league seasons, and he signed an extension of his own with the San Francisco Giants less than a year ago. Cain's extension is a guaranteed $127.5 million/6 years, and includes an option which can push the deal to $141 million/7 years. To put that in perspective, Cain will make $19.5 millon less than Greinke over the guaranteed life of the contract, and would still make $6 million less than Greinke if the option goes into effect. This is shocking since Cain's numbers are superior to Greinke's in most categories. Cain has a win-loss record of 85-78, an ERA of 3.27, he has 1,536.2 IP, and he has struck out 1,278 batters. While Cain trails Greinke in wins, and strikeouts, he boasts a better ERA and has pitched more innings. Keep in mind that Cain has pitched in only 236 games compared to Greinke's 272. Furthermore, Cain has compiled a career WAR of 29.2, barely trailing Greinke's 29.5. Cain has also compiled an ERA+ of 124 over his career, besting Greinke by a full ten points. However, Cain has never won a single CY Young Award, in fact he has never finished higher than sixth place on the ballot, but Cain has three All-Star appearances to Greinke's one. Cain and Greinke compare favorably to one another, and people could argue about who is better all day, unless postseason stats were included...then Cain has the advantage by far. Aside from Greinke and Cain, there is also Cole Hamels who has been compared to Matt Cain for many years, especially after Cain signed his extension. Then there is Justin Verlander...(The second entry of part 1 will be posted within the next few days).
(All statistics and other data were compiled from www.baseballreference.com)
(Pictures Curtesy of Google Images)

Free Agent Market and Economics

It's been a very long time since my last post, over five months, but better late than never. Here is my take (somewhat) on MLB Free Agent Market this winter:

   The money given out to free agents like BJ Upton, Zack Greinke, and Shane Victorino seem like overpays, and that's because these players were all overpaid. Here is my breakdown on each of these three players without getting into statistical data (that can wait till a later day).

BJ Upton: ($75 Million plus/4 years): Upton signed with the Atlanta Braves, and he is expected to be their everyday center fielder. Upton has been regarded as a five tool player, but it has also been noted that he has never figured out how to use all his tools. He is a good defender, and he posted a career high in Home Runs this past year, but his strikeout rate soared as well.

Zack Greinke: ($147 million/6 years): I have always been heard that timing is everything, and Zack Greinke is living proof. I believe Greinke got the richest contract in MLB history for a right handed pitcher, and that says something about this market. Greinke was the best available starting pitcher on the market without a doubt, and he cashed in because of that. So Greinke is the best picher in baseball? No, but the Dodgers had money to spend and they wanted Greinke and now they have him.

Shane Victorino ($39 Million/3 years): Victorino had a tough contract year, and was hardly the player he was in 2011. There could have been a number of reasons for that, pressure, the Phillies underperforming, or maybe the stress of cashing in got to him, but based on his 2012 performance, that money could have been better spent elswhere by the Red Sox.

Don't get me wrong, I believe Upton has a ton of upside and is a great defender just as Victorino is, and Zack Greinke is an outstanding pitcher. However, the prices spent on players such as these three this offseason says a lot about the 2012 market, and I say that without trying to undermine the players and their talent.

Within the next few weeks I will take a more in depth look at these three players, maybe some others, and comparable players and their contracts.

(Contract Value and length provided by Baseball Reference-www.baseballreference.com)