Saturday, February 23, 2013

Top Closers Right Now: Consistency/Longevity Counts

   This will be my last post for awhile concerning pitchers, and while I enjoy analyzing pitching statistics I am ready to cover hitting statistics. But before that happens, here are the top five closers in the Majors. In my opinion the most important thing for a closer to do is to save games; that is the most important stat for a closer, but other statistics cannot be ignored.

5) Joel Hanrahan: Joel Hanrahan is probably one of the most underrated closers in Baseball. Hanrahan was recently traded from the Pittsburgh Pirates to the Boston Red Sox, and while most people fret about pitchers moving from the National League to the American League, Hanrahan should be just fine. Hanrahan has posted a career line of 96 saves, an average 9.9 SO/9, 397.1 IP and an average SO/BB of 2.27 over parts of six MLB seasons. However, Hanrahan has only been a full time closer the last two years as all but twenty of his saves have been recorded in the past two years (76/96: 2011:40 and 2012:36, respectively). Hanrahan's average of 9.9 SO/9 is a respectable number since 9 SO/9 is considered good for a reliever, but Hanrahan is not a dominant reliever by any stretch of the imagination. To my knowledge there is not a set number which makes a pitchers SO/BB ratio be defined as good, but obviously the higher that number the better. Hanrahan's career SO/BB is listed above, but in 2011 he posted a 3.81 SO/BB to go along with an ERA of 1.83. However in 2012, his SO/BB dropped to 1.86 and his ERA ballooned to 2.72. The numbers are still respectable and Hanrahan is a nice pickup for Boston, but at the age of 31, the closer may not be as dominant going forward as he has in years past.

4) Rafael Soriano: Rafael Soriano recently signed a lucrative contract with the Washington Nationals, and he will open the 2013 season as their closer. Soriano filled in admirably for Mariano Rivera in 2012, after Rivera tore his ACL while shagging fly balls in the outfield during batting practice one day before a game. In Rivera's absence, Soriano saved 42 games, pitching 67.2 innings, posted an ERA of 2.26, a SO/9 of 9.2, and a SO/BB of 2.88. Over his career he has saved 132 games, pitched 502 innings, posted an ERA of 2.78, a SO/9 of 9.4, and a SO/BB of 3.29. Keep in mind that Soriano did not become a full time closer until 2009, when he was pitching for the Atlanta Braves in his final season there. That season he amassed 27 saves, a 2.97 ERA, and a 1.78 SO/BB to go along with a SO/9 of 12.1. In 2010 he moved on to Tampa Bay where he pitched for the Rays(The Rays always seem to find a closer who works well for them). In 2012 he saved 45 games for the Rays, had an ERA of 1.73, a SO/9 of 8.2 and a SO/BB of 4.07. As a manager, I would gladly take these statistics from a closer or any reliever for that matter, and while Soriano filled in admirably in Rivera's absence, there are better options. Such as the closer Soriano was filling in for. Speaking of Mariano Rivera...

3) Mariano Rivera: Mariano Rivera, also known as Mo went down with an ACL injury last season as mentioned above. The only reason that I have Mo ranked third and not second is due to the ACL injury. He was not going to top this list anyhow, as he is not the best closer in the game right now, but he is the greatest closer of all time. Due to the injury, Rivera's pitching line from 2012 does not resemble what it would have without the injury. After all, this is a guy who has amassed as many as 53 saves in a season, and he has saved 30 or more games fourteen times in his 18 year career. Here is his stat line from 2012: 5 saves, 8.1 IP, 2.16 ERA, SO/9 of 8.6, and a SO/BB of 4.00. Mo was off to a good start in 2012 before the injury derailed his season, but still at the age of 43 (18 seasons in the Majors), Mo is no doubt bound to have another great season to add to his Hall of Fame Career. Here are the number's for Mo's career: 608 saves (most ever), 1,219.2 IP, 2.21 ERA, SO/9 of 8.3, and a SO/BB of 4.04. Everything happens for a reason, and I was saddened to see Mo succumb to injury last season, but had he not it may have been his last season. Rivera will reveal his plans about his future before opening day, but I look forward to watching the Future Hall of Famer rack up a lot of saves for the New York Yankees in 2013.

2) Jonathan Papelbon: Jonathan Papelbon, also known as Pap would have placed third on my list had Rivera not been injured. However Rivera was in fact injured and Papelbon proved in 2012 why he is one of the games elite closers. Now, I was watching MLB Network awhile back, and "The Shredder" had Paps ranked as the game's eighth best closer or something like that. Well incase no one has noticed, this is not MLB Network and I don't have a shredder, and I understand that "The Shredder" has a formula which accounts for past success and projects future success. So how good was Paps in 2012, his first year in the National League with the Philadelphia Phillies? Paps recorded this pitching stat line: 38 saves, 70 IP, 2.44 ERA, SO/9 of 11.8, and a SO/BB of 5.11. That is a nice stat line for a closer, and while Paps has had better years in parts of eight MLB seasons, 2012 was a solid year where he finished 64 games (most in the NL). Over his career, Paps has put up the following numbers: 257 saves, 499.1 IP, 2.34 ERA, SO/9 of 10.8, and aSO/BB of 4.52. Plenty of people have told me that Paps is "Decent" for a closer. Decent does not describe Papelbon accurately, Elite does. Not many closers remain relavent for a long period of time due to being volatile, but Papelbon has remained relevant. Ever since becoming a full time closer in 2006, Papelbon has saved more than 30 games every season. If Papelbon is only "Decent" and is not currently one of the games best closers, then I am missing something.

1) Craig Kimbrel: Being from around the Atlanta area, I can understand why Papelbon may not seem that great, because most people around here are obviously Atlanta Braves fans. Fans who say they have the best closer in all of baseball, and I agree with them, but biased attitudes from any fan base cause good players like Papelbon and Soriano to get overlooked(There will be a post on this in the future). For now though, let's focus on Kimbrel who finished 2012 with a very impressive stat line. A line that included: 42 saves, 62.2 IP, 1.01 ERA, SO/9 16.7, and a SO/BB of 8.29. Let's face it, for the second year in a row, Kimbrel dominated his competition. For his Major League Career(parts of three seasons), Kimbrel has been overpowering to say the least. For his career, the 24 year old right hander has accumulated 89 saves, 160.1 IP, 1.46 ERA, a SO/9 of 15.9, and an 8.29 SO/BB. I would elaborate more on Kimbrel, but honestly it is difficult to do so. His stats do all of the talking. He has a wipeout slider and a fastball that can reach triple digits, and he seems to have a bright future ahead of him. At 24 years of age, Kimbrel has a long way to go and must remain cosistent, but perhaps by the time his career is over, he will be known as the greatest closer of all time surpassing Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera.

Strong Consideration:

1) Jim Johnson: Great 2012, but just finding his niche.

2) Adroldis Chapman: Insane strikeout numbers and other statistics but expected to be a starter moving forward.

3) Lance Lynn: Has had two good years and was a World Series Champion in 2011.

4) Fernando Rodney: Lowest ERA for a reliever in the live ball era, but he is going to be 35 soon and hasn't been consistent over the course his career.

Other Choices:
Sergio Romo, Carlos Marmol, Wilton Lopez, etc.

   This post concludes my blogging on pitchers for awhile, and while I have enjoyed the pitching analyzation, I am ready to move on to position players. I will be analyzing each position players defense and hitting abilities. My next blog post will be on the games best catchers right now.       

Monday, February 11, 2013

Top Mlb Relievers: Non-Closers Right Now

   I figured I would break relievers into two separate categories since saves are vital for closers and other relievers are relied on for other various reasons. So, it time to commence the top five countdown.


Koji Uehara (5)
Jonny Venters (4)
                                     

Mike Adams (3)
Sergio Romo (1)
       


Eric O'Flaherty (2)







5)   Koji Uehara: Koji Uehara has been one of the most consistent relievers in MLB since making his debut with the Orioels. Since then, Uehara has gone on to pitch for the Texas Rangers, and he will pitch this upcoming season with the Boston Red Sox. Uehara has spent only four years in the Majors, but in those four seasons he has posted an ERA of 2.89, pitched 211.2 innings, saved 14 games, posted a 9.8 SO/9 (Strikeouts for nine innings) and posted a K/BB (Strikeout to walk ratio) of 7.97. Both of the stats mentioned above are great measurements for a reliever since it is vital for relievers to post a lot of strikeouts while walking few, and a good SO/9 is at least nine. Uehara has excelled pretty well in both categories. Uehara has also pitched at least 44 3/4 of his seasons, and pitched to an ERA of under 3.00 as well. However, Uehara does not come close to comparing to the remaining four pitchers on this list.

4)   Jonny Venters: Venters has been a dominant reliever for the Atlanta Braves since 2010, being nothing short of outstanding. Over those three seasons, Venters has compiled a 2.23 ERA, pitched 229 innings, has recorded 6 saves. What's more is that out of those three years, Venters has pitched to an ERA below 2.00 and pitched over 80 innings(2010: 1.95 ERA, 83 IP; 2011: 1.84 ERA, 88 IP). The flame throwing lefty took a step back in 2012, posting a 3.22 ERA, and while he failed to to pitch at least 80 innings last season, he still pitched 63 innings which is still impressive, especially considering Venters was plagued by injury. While the next hurler on this list also took a step back most likely due to injury, their is a good reason that he surpasses Venters.

3)   Mike Adams: Mike Adams has been one of the best setup men in baseball over the last handful of seasons. Like Venters, Adams took a step backwards in 2012 as the right handed hurler suffered from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. Adams posted decent numbers, but numbers which were inconsistent with his career, specifically over the last few seasons. In 2012, Adams posted a 3.27 ERA in 52 innings, while managing to pick up one save. These numbers are decent for a reliever, but they are a far cry from Adams career statistics. Over his career, Adams has accumulated a 2.28 ERA, pitched 363 innings, and recorded 4 saves. Adams has absolutely dominated opposing hitters over the course of his career, and since 2009 he has been phenomenal, excluding 2012. Over those other three seasons, Adams has pitched for the San Diego Padres and the Texas Rangers. During those seasons he has pitched in at least 37 innings and posted an ERA under 2.00; 2009-2011 in order: (37 IP, 0.73 ERA; 66 IP, 1.75 ERA; 73 IP, 1.47 ERA). Adams ranks ahead of Venters because he has a longer track record, and he does not have an arsenal as potentially dangerous as Venters does. However, one of Venters Bullpen mates has been nearly un-hittable since he began pitching for the Atlanta Braves.

2)   Eric O'Flaherty: Eric O'Flaherty has been unbelievable since he began pitching for the Atlanta Braves in 2009. Honestly, I thought O'Flaherty came up through the Braves farm system, that is incorrect however, he was actually claimed off waivers from the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners seemingly had a good reason for placing O'Flaherty on waivers, seeing as he posted a 20.25 ERA in 6.2 innings (Yikes), but the Mariners have likely lamented the decision since. For his career, O'Flaherty has posted an ERA of 2.87, pitched 301.1 innings, a SO/9 of 7.0, and a SO/BB of 2.21, but it is the 27 year olds numbers since getting out of Seattle that are so impressive. While in Seattle, O'Flaherty never posted an ERA below 4.00, his SO/9 never reached above 6.2, his SO/BB never even reached 2.00 (1.80 being the height) and he only pitched more than 11 innings once. On the other hand since being in Atlanta O'Flaherty has never posted an ERA over 3.04, his SO/9 has been a 6.2 or higher, his SO/BB has been a 2.00 or higher, and he has pitched 44 innings at least. Moreover O'Flaherty has posted an ERA under 2.00 the last two seasons (2011: 0.98 & 2012: 1.73). The lefty will be a free agent next offseason and is due for a big payday, but not as big of a payday as the number one pitcher on this list will potentially receive.

1)   Sergio Romo: Sergio Romo emerged as the San Fransisco Giants closer (at least part time) this past season. He saved 14 games for the Giants in 2012 and recorded 3 saves in the World Series as well, which helped them eventually win the title. Romo was not a full time closer this past season, nor has he ever been and that is why he appears on this list. Romo has been underrated throughout the course of his career and was probably unknown for the most part until this past season. But make no mistake about it, Romo has been one of the most dominant relievers over the past five seasons. He has posted an ERA of 2.20, pitched 233.1 innings, and racked up 17 saves (14 of which came in 2012), he has compiled a SO/9 of 10.7, and a SO/BB of 5.77. Additionally, out of his five major league seasons, Romo has posted an ERA above 2.18 once (a 3.97 ERA in 2009). Aside from that one atypical year, Romo has posted the following ERA statistics: 2.12 (2008), 2.18 (2010), 1.50 (2011) and a 1.79 in 2012. He has also pitched at least 34 innings in his five seasons at the MLB level. The future looks bright for the 29 year old reliever, and he will most likely be the Giants full time closer in 2013.

Five Additional Considerations (No Particular Order):

1)   Brad Ziegler: Ziegler is personally one of my favorite relievers for the simple fact that I like his sidearm/submarine delivery, and unfortunately he is really underrated. Aside from the delivery though, Ziegler has been a good reliever for the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Oakland Athletics over five seasons. Posting a 2.44 career ERA and pitching more than 58 innings each season.

2)   Drew Storen: Storen is a young reliever for the Washington Nationals at 24 years of age, but he has been a key contributor out of their pen the past three seasons posting an ERA under 3.00 and racking up over 50 saves.

3)   Luke Gregerson: Gregerson has been an asset for the San Diego Padres pitching at least 55 innings each oh his four seasons (over 70 innings in three of those seasons), and he has poste a sub 3.00 ERA.

4)   Wilton Lopez: Lopez was recently traded from the Houston Astros to the Colorado Rockies, but over the past three seasons he has posted an ERA under 3.00.

5)   Ernesto Frieri: Frieri was traded from the San Diego Padres to the Los Angeles Angels in 2012, and while the hurler may have command issues at times, it's hard to argue with the results of a 2.32 ERA over parts of four MLB seasons.

Other Options:

Antonio Bastardo, Darren O'Day, David Robertson, Bobby Parnell, Pat Neshek, Steve Cishek,
Tom Wilhelmsen, etc.