Compare and Contracts Continued...

Happy New Year's Eve Everyone!

Continuing on from my previous blog post...


   Cole Hamels: Hamels signed a contract extension before the 2012 trade deadline with the Philadelphia Phillies. The contract is worth approximately $132 Million/6 years, and a seventh year option could push the deal to range between $152-$156 Million/7 years. Hamels will earn slightly more than Cain over the guaranteed life of his contract, but Hamels will still fall $15 million short of the contract recently inked by Greinke. Hamels was expected to sign for more money than Cain, and Cain's contract was probably a starting/reference point in negotiations. Unlike Greinke and Cain, Hamels is left handed, and elite starting left handed pitchers like Hamels are something of a rarity, and thus are expected to be paid higher premiums than their peers. So how exactly does Hamels match up with the two aforementioned starting pitchers? Over parts of seven MLB seasons, Cole Hamels has a career win-loss record of 91-60, an ERA of 3.34, he has 1,376.2 IP, and has struck out 1,307 batters. Hamels has compiled these numbers in 212 career games, fewer than Greinke and Cain. While, Hamels has exceeded Cain in strikeouts, he trails Greinke (barely), but keep in mind that Greinke and Cain have pitched in quite a few more games than Hamels, and that alone attributes a ton to the stat differential. Despite all of this, Hamels has as many wins as Greinke and more wins than Cain, while boasting a better winning percentage than both. Examining the advanced stats, Hamels has compared a career WAR of 27.4. Henceforth, Hamels trails Cain and Greinke in WAR, but if Hamels had as much service time as Cain and Greinke, he would probably easily surpass the two in WAR. As far as ERA+ is concerned, Hamels has averaged a career ERA+ value of 126. This value bests Cain's 124 and Greinke's 114, but like Cain, Hamels has never won a CY Young Award.(The highest Hamels has ever placed on a ballot is fifth in 2011). However just like Cain, Hamels has appeared in three All-Star games, while Greinke has only appeared in one.

Hamels Post Season Numbers:

Year	W	L	ERA	IP	SO
2007	0	1	4.05	6.2	7
2008	1	0	0.00	8.0	9
2008	2	0	1.93	14.0	13
2008	1	0	2.77	13.0	8
2009	0	1	7.20	5.0	5
2009	1	0	6.52	9.2	7
2009	0	1	10.38	4.1	3
2010	1	0	0.00	9.0	9
2010	0	1	3.00	6.0	8
2011	1	0	0.00	6.0	8
5 Yrs (10 Series)	7	4	3.09	81.2	77
5 NLDS	3	2	1.82	34.2	38
3 NLCS	3	1	3.64	29.2	28
2 WS	1	1	4.67	17.1	11

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/11/2013.

So, how does Justin Verlander compare to Greinke, Cain, and Hamels?

   Justin Verlander: I know what some people are thinking. How can you compare Justin Verlander, arguably the best pitcher in the game to the aforementioned pitchers above? Well as crazy as it sounds, Justin Verlander has stats which are more comparable to Greinke, Cain, and Hamels than one would initially guess. Over parts of eight Major League Seasons, Verlander has posted some outstanding numbers. Verlander has a career win-loss record of 124-65, an ERA of 3.40, he has 1,553.2 IP, and has struck out 1,454 batters. Yes, Verlander is the cream of the crop, he has outperformed Greinke, Cain and Hamels in every category, except for his ERA. Verlander's ERA is lower than Greinke's, but Verlander has a career ERA that is higher than both Cain and Hamels. Aside from the ERA category, Verlander has performed much better than the three other top flight starters...at least at first glance, but digging deeper into the stats, the debate gets even better. Verlander has posted a career ERA+ of 128, which is only a mere two points higher than Hamels 126. But WAR heavily favors Verlander, as he has compiled a career WAR of 34.2, which far exceeds the value of the previously mentioned pitchers. As far as accolades go, Verlander is a five time All-Star at the age of 29, he won the CY Young Award in the AL and was named the MVP in 2011, and he was named the American League Rookie of the Year. Looking at the stats and accolades and comparing Verlander to the pitchers mentioned above, I wonder if Verlander had hit the open market this offseason what his contract would have been. A $180 Million/6 year with an option for a seventh year that could push the contract to $215 Million/7 years, this contract is probably not far fetched. This would provide Verlander with an Average Annual Value of $30 million over the six guaranteed years with a $35 million option for the seventh year. However, if people look at postseason stats, Verlander's value might take a hit...as Cain is the superior postseason pitcher of the group. However Verlander pitched well in the postseason this year.

Verlander's Post Season Numbers:

Year	W	L	ERA	IP	SO
2006	0	0	5.06	5.1	5
2006	1	0	6.75	5.1	6
2006	0	2	5.73	11.0	12
2011	1	0	5.00	9.0	12
2011	1	1	5.56	11.1	13
2012	2	0	0.56	16.0	22
2012	1	0	1.08	8.1	3
2012	0	1	11.25	4.0	4
3 Yrs (8 Series)	6	4	4.22	70.1	77
3 ALDS	3	0	2.67	30.1	39
3 ALCS	3	1	4.32	25.0	22
2 WS	0	3	7.20	15.0	16

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/11/2013.

   People can argue and use different stats all day to prove which one of these four pitchers is the best, and there is probably not a wrong answer. I did not compare these four pitchers to give readers a clear-cut winner, I did so in order to allow the readers to think about contract values and how pitchers stack up to one another. Each of these pitchers has their perks. Greinke has a wipe-out curveball, Cain knows how to pitch and has thrown a perfect game, Hamels has a devestating change-up, and Verlander has thrown two career no-hitters. It's goood to debate about topics like this, but I would like to remind everyone that all of these pitchers are entering/in the prime of their careers, and I believe the best is yet to come from all of these pitchers. I want to remind my readers not to get so caught up in debates or hating the teams these players pitch for or even the pitchers themselves that they forget to enjoy and marvel at the performances and careers of each of the individuals.

I hope that everyone has a Good Start to a Happy New Year, May God Bless each and everyone of you throughout this New Year!

Compare and Contracts

    In this entry I am going to compare the three players, mentioned in my previous blog entry, to players that seem to share similar stats. I will begin with Zack Greinke, whom I am going to compare to Matt Cain, Cole Hamels and Justin Verlander:

   Zack Greinke: As I established in my previous blog entry, Greinke signed the richest contract for a right handed pitcher in MLB history at $147 million/6 years. That is obviously a ton of money, and while Greinke has nice credentials and value, it is tough to believe that he received this type of money compared to some of his closely comparable peers.  Over parts of nine MLB seasons, Greinke has a win-loss record of 91-78, an ERA of 3.77, he has 1,492 IP, and he has struck out 1,332 batters. These are the stats people tend to look at to determine if a pitcher is a legitimate "Ace". Greinke boasts a pretty good stat line especially since he has pitched the bulk of his career in the American League. Some would argue that comparing one pitcher's value and ERA to another pitcher's value and ERA is not a justifiable basis for comparison due to various factors. Therefore, I will take this analyzation a little further. Greinke has accumulated a career WAR(Wins Above Replacement) of 29.5. The statistic WAR indicates how much more valuable a player is than his replacement would be. Greinke has a cumulative career ERA+ of 114. ERA+ adjusts to a pitcher's league and ballpark factors. The higher the ERA+, the better the pitcher is. Greinke has very respectable stats, and he will provide a nice 1-2 punch in the Dodgers rotation with Clayton Kershaw.  He won the AL CY Young award in 2009, but  has only one All-Star appearance. Looking at accolades and statics objectively, he does not quite measure up with Cain, Hamels, and Verlander.

   Matt Cain: Cain is the closest comparison to Greinke in this group. Cain is right handed just like Greinke, Cain has been in the majors through parts of eight major league seasons, and he signed an extension of his own with the San Francisco Giants less than a year ago. Cain's extension is a guaranteed $127.5 million/6 years, and includes an option which can push the deal to $141 million/7 years. To put that in perspective, Cain will make $19.5 millon less than Greinke over the guaranteed life of the contract, and would still make $6 million less than Greinke if the option goes into effect. This is shocking since Cain's numbers are superior to Greinke's in most categories. Cain has a win-loss record of 85-78, an ERA of 3.27, he has 1,536.2 IP, and he has struck out 1,278 batters. While Cain trails Greinke in wins, and strikeouts, he boasts a better ERA and has pitched more innings. Keep in mind that Cain has pitched in only 236 games compared to Greinke's 272. Furthermore, Cain has compiled a career WAR of 29.2, barely trailing Greinke's 29.5. Cain has also compiled an ERA+ of 124 over his career, besting Greinke by a full ten points. However, Cain has never won a single CY Young Award, in fact he has never finished higher than sixth place on the ballot, but Cain has three All-Star appearances to Greinke's one. Cain and Greinke compare favorably to one another, and people could argue about who is better all day, unless postseason stats were included...then Cain has the advantage by far. Aside from Greinke and Cain, there is also Cole Hamels who has been compared to Matt Cain for many years, especially after Cain signed his extension. Then there is Justin Verlander...(The second entry of part 1 will be posted within the next few days).
(All statistics and other data were compiled from www.baseballreference.com)
(Pictures Curtesy of Google Images)

Free Agent Market and Economics

It's been a very long time since my last post, over five months, but better late than never. Here is my take (somewhat) on MLB Free Agent Market this winter:

   The money given out to free agents like BJ Upton, Zack Greinke, and Shane Victorino seem like overpays, and that's because these players were all overpaid. Here is my breakdown on each of these three players without getting into statistical data (that can wait till a later day).

BJ Upton: ($75 Million plus/4 years): Upton signed with the Atlanta Braves, and he is expected to be their everyday center fielder. Upton has been regarded as a five tool player, but it has also been noted that he has never figured out how to use all his tools. He is a good defender, and he posted a career high in Home Runs this past year, but his strikeout rate soared as well.

Zack Greinke: ($147 million/6 years): I have always been heard that timing is everything, and Zack Greinke is living proof. I believe Greinke got the richest contract in MLB history for a right handed pitcher, and that says something about this market. Greinke was the best available starting pitcher on the market without a doubt, and he cashed in because of that. So Greinke is the best picher in baseball? No, but the Dodgers had money to spend and they wanted Greinke and now they have him.

Shane Victorino ($39 Million/3 years): Victorino had a tough contract year, and was hardly the player he was in 2011. There could have been a number of reasons for that, pressure, the Phillies underperforming, or maybe the stress of cashing in got to him, but based on his 2012 performance, that money could have been better spent elswhere by the Red Sox.

Don't get me wrong, I believe Upton has a ton of upside and is a great defender just as Victorino is, and Zack Greinke is an outstanding pitcher. However, the prices spent on players such as these three this offseason says a lot about the 2012 market, and I say that without trying to undermine the players and their talent.

Within the next few weeks I will take a more in depth look at these three players, maybe some others, and comparable players and their contracts.

(Contract Value and length provided by Baseball Reference-www.baseballreference.com)

The Beginning Of The End?

   I haven't posted a new blog in over two months so, a few days before the trade deadline seems like a good time for a new blog post. However, rather than focusing on the trades/extensions that have developed in recent weeks; I want to focus specifically on the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies have had a ton of success in recent years, which seemed to start in 2007 when they were seven games behind the New York Mets. The Phillies stormed back to Clinch the Division title as The National League East Champions away from the Mets, and every year from 2007-2011, the Philadelphia Phillies have defended their title (5 consecutive division championships), and they won a World Series Championship in 2008. Every year it seems like, whether good or bad, management has always been willing to make a move in order to have a better shot at clinching the title of a World Series, and seemingly at the same time hurting the Phillies future (win now/don't worry about the future). Management has made major moves at the deadline such as acquiring Joe Blanton(2008), Cliff Lee(2009), Roy Oswalt(2010) and Hunter Pence(2011). So, every year from 2008-2011 (more so 2009-2011/The Ruben Amaro Jr. Era) Every year Phillies fans have wondered close to the trade deadline: "What is the Move?" (Most notably July 29th has been the date that Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Hunter Pence were acquired in 2009, 2010, and 2011 respectively).  But, it's 2012 and the story seems much different this year because the Phillies are currently 15.5 games behind the division leading Washington Nationals, 11.5 games behind both of the current wild card leaders, the Braves and the Pirates, and the most shocking thing of all 11 games under .500. It's hard to believe that the 2011 Phillies won a franchise best 102 games and the 2012 Phillies(basically comprised of the same squad) are struggling this badly.  It's true, the Phillies have been injury prone; they were without Utley and Howard for the first half of the season, and suffered injuries to Halladay, Worley, Lee, and Stutes among others. So, was this simply a blip on the radar or is this a sign of things to come in the ensuing years. But, there is no need for excuses from the players, the management, the franchise, or the fans. Even with all the injuries, this team still should not have performed this poorly. However, the struggles have resulted from injuries, a young bullpen, and poor defense among other factors, but for the most part this team seems to have underperformed more than anything, and as a result some of the Phillies most beloved players may soon find themselves in a new city with new teammates. Rumors have surfaced about Blanton, Victorino, Pence, among others, and even franchise player Jimmy Rollins. Henceforth, whatever happens we should all wish the best of luck to some of our favorite players no matter what happens, not only for the remainder of this year, but  for their future as well. They will always be embraced by the fans, and hold a place in what may very well be the end of a great era in Philadelphia Phillies baseball history. If this truly is it and the "window of opportunity" is closing it has been a great ride and we should all show gratitude to the organization and it's players throughout the years. Is this the beginning Of The End? Or, has this year simply just been a fluke? Either way, with July 31st quickly approaching  Phillies fans(phans) must be thinking to themselves: "What's The Move?" 

Brandon Beachy and Vance Worley

   Well, Albert Pujols finally hit his first homerun today, so that helps support my previous blog entry. Now, on to discussing Brandon Beachy and Vance Worley. Both of these pitchers are relatively new to the game of baseball, and they both have just over a year in the Major  Leagues on their resumes. With the huge contracts that free agents obtain and the way the arbitration works (usually in favor of the player going through arbitration) I think it is safe to say that the Brave's should sacrifice a little bit of money to go ahead and lock up Beachy long term, and the Philles should do the same for Worley. Therefore, following the example that the Tampa Bay Rays have set with such players as Matt Moore and Evan Longoria. So, let's look at some numbers from the promising young starters. So far for Beachy's career he has posted a 10-6 record, has a 3.22 ERA, has a 3.55K/BB ratio, and just over 195 IP. So, how does Worley compare to Beachy? Worley has posted a record of 14-6, has an 2.86 ERA, a 2.65K/BB rate, and has just over 182 IP. Both of these pitchers have been phenomenal for their team, and so far they have exceeded expectations. So which pitcher is better is up for debate. (Viewers should look into more advanced metrics to learn more, and make ther decision). Looking at the numbers, Beachy and Worley are very similar pitchers, and each has their advantage over the other in different categories, but either way, the Atlanta Braves should try to lock Brandon Beachy up long term when he is first arbitration eligible if he continues to perform at an astonishing rate, and the Philadelphia Philles should do the same for Vance Worley. Therefore, both teams could lock up potential future "Ace's" relatively cheap, and if either team ends up regretting their decision, the possible cheap and huge reward for locking these pitchers up longterm before they are  arbitration eligible is a low risk worth taking for both teams to help them win in the short term as well as the long term. (Numbers/Stats provided by baseballreference.com).

The Mystery of Albert Pujols

We all know that Albert Pujols has scuffled out of the gate with the LA Angels. But, I'm more interested in trying to analyze why he has struggled, and give some possible reasons, most of which other people have already stated. Pujols has established a career with a slash line of .327/.418/.612, we all know that those are great numbers especially over 12 years in The Bigs. Pujols has also slugged 445HR's. So, why has Pujols struggled through the first month of the season with the Angels? Maybe it's the new ballpark, a new team, new teammates, maybe it's the climate, regrets about deserting St. Louis....or maybe it is the expectations that came from that 240 Million dollar contract he signed this offseason? Let me put it in perspective this way. Adam Dunn left the Washington Nationals last year to sign with the Chicago White Sox for a large contract, and last year he posted a slash line of .159/.292/.277, while only hitting which is atrocious, hitting a mere 11 HR and having 42 RBI's. Maybe he needed time to adjust to his new place and role, because it looks like Dunn is headed in the right direction this season, having already slugged 5HR and having 16 RBI's, only time will tell though. My point with the comparison is that Pujols will turn things around, but when and how quickly remains yet to be seen! (Numbers provided by baseball reference).

Welcome

Welcome to my new, and first ever blog site. Here, I will be posting updates on baseball players, teams and any other baseball data that I see fit. Just to let everyone know, my two favorite teams are the Philadelphia Philles and the Huston Astros. Tomorrow I will make my first official post regarding Albert Pujols. Enjoy!