Wednesday, January 30, 2013

The Top Left Handed Starting Pitchers Right Now

    I want to begin this blog post by saying that I made a mistake when listing the Top Five Right Handed Starting Pitchers... Felix Hernandez should have been included on my list instead of Johnny Cueto, but King Felix will now appear on one of my lists at a later date. I would also like to clarify that the five pitchers under included in the additional list are not the only other pitchers I considered when making the list. They were just the five that came to my mind and a brief reason as to why. There are other considerations, for example I also considered Jake Peavy, Tim Lincecum, Tim Hudson, etc. So without any further delay, here is my list of the Top Left Handed Starting Pitchers right now: (It may also be helpful to click on the links and check out each pitcher's career statistics; I tried to to include charts, but they would not format correctly).

5)   Cliff Lee: Lee is 34 years old, but he is still one of the elite starting pitchers in the game. Everyone that I have talked to has told me that Cliff Lee had a disastrous season last year, and some people have went as far as saying his career is not far from over. I get it, a win-loss record of 6-9 for 2012 does not sound good, and while I agree that wins are important, they are not everything. If someone is going to say Lee was horrible this past year and is numbers have no chance of improving, I want more proof than just a win loss record. Take into account Lee pitched to a 3.16 ERA in 2013, 211 IP, and he struck out 207 batters while only walking 28. Sure, it looks like a far cry from the 17-8 record Lee posted in 2011, along with an ERA of 2.40, and he lead the National League in shout outs at 6. Over the past three seasons, Lee has been a dominant pitcher posting these numbers: an ERA of 2.91, a win-loss record of 33-26, 655 IP, and he has struck out 630 batters. The win-loss record is still not mind blowing, but Led pitched half of 2010 with the Seattle Mariners, and 2012 was just an unlucky year for Lee. Nonetheless, he deserves a spot on this list and the fifth spot seems right even though he could easily have placed as the number there or four slot on this list...

4)   Gio Gonzalez: Gonzalez was not well known until this past season after the Washington Nationals acquired him from the Oakland Athletics and he had what most would term a "breakout season," but that is not the case. Gonzalez had the best season of his career to date, winning 21 games, and posting an ERA of 2.89., pitching 199 innings, and striking out207 batters. But Gonzalez has been consisten the last three years, posting an ERA of 3.08, a win loss record of 52-29, pitching 601 innings, and striking out 575 batters. Perhaps Gonzalez went relatively unnoticed due to "East Coast Bias," maybe because Gonzalez posts a high walk rate and doesn't always pitch 200+ innings pitched. Whatever the case though, he has been dominant and consistent enough to claim the top spot on this list.

3)   Cole Hamels: Hamels is one of Lee's rotation mates. Hamels is an elite pitcher who seems to get better every year. Last season, Hamels posted an ERA of 3.05, a win-loss record of 17-6, he pitched 215.1 innings, and he struck out a career high 216 batters. Hamels has collected three All-Star game appearances, two of which have come back to back in the 2011 and 2012 season. Over the last three seasons, Hamels has pitched 640 innings, posted a win-loss record of 43-26, an ERA of 2.97, and struck out 621 batters. Along the way, Hamels has placed in the top ten of the NL CYA voting each of the last two seasons (5th and 8th respectively). The ace will be 29 years of age at the beginning of next season, and as his pitching game evolves, he make his way up my list, but he has a ways to go before he catches number 2 and number 1, so for now, Hamels slots nicely in the third spot ahead of Lee and Gonzalez. So who has placed ahead of Hamels?...

2)   David Price: Price slots right ahead of Hamels on my list. Price had an excellent season pitching for the Tampa Bay Rays in the hitter heavy AL East. Price had a career year, he posted an ERA of 2.56(leading the AL), he tied for the lead in wins/winning percentage posting a win-loss record of 20-5. In short, Price's season was good enough to earn him the AL CYA. Moreover, Price has been a phenomenal pitcher over the last three seasons posting these stats: an ERA of 2.92, pitching 644 innings, a win-loss record of 52-24, and striking out 611 batters. Along the way, Price has appeared in the last three All-Star games, while also placing in the top three of the AL CYA voting two of the past three seasons (placing 2nd in 2010 and 1st I'm 2012 respectively). Price throws a fastball at 97+ MPH, and has some impressive braking pitches, and while the 27 year old may be around for awhile, even if he keeps his recent success at its current rate, he will probably still be stuck behind the guy at the top of this list...

1)   Clayton Kershaw: Maybe Justin Verlander is considered the best pitcher in baseball, but I am inclined to disagree; I believe Kershaw is the best starting pitcher in all of baseball or at least he is going to be. While Verlander has been nothing short of spectacular over the last few years, Kershaw has be unbelievably dominant. Last season, Kershaw posted the following statistics while pitching for the Los Angeles Dodgers: An ERA of 2.53, a win-loss record of 14-9, 227 IP, and he also struck out 229 batters. This is not a fluke either, excluding his rookie year in 2008, Kershaw has posted an ERA under 3.00, pitched at least 171 innings (204 the last three seasons), and he has struck out no fewer than 185 batters (212 the last three seasons) each of the last four seasons. So how about the numbers he has compiled since 2009? Kershaw has accumulated an ERA of 2.63, a win-loss record of 56-32, pitched 836.1 innings, and struck out 874 batters. Despite these numbers, Kershaw did not appear in an All-Star game or recieve any votes in an award category until 2011. In 2011, Kershaw went to his first All-Star game, finished 12th in the NL MVP voting, and he won a Gold Glove and the NL CYA. In 2012, Kershaw finished 16th in the MVP voting, 2nd in the CYA voting, and appeared in his second consecuitive All-Star game. He lead the National League in ERA, WHIP, H/9  in 2011 and 2012, and in 2011 he  also led the tied for the league lead in, wins and strikeouts. Kershaw has not even begun to enter his peak, which is typically considered to start around age 25. Kershaw has just completed his age 24 season. I look forward to watching Kershaw perform over the rest of his career, and I believe he will eventually be recognized as the best pitcher in Major League Baseball.

Five Additional Considerations (No particular order):

1) Wandy Rodriguez: Rodriguez has was the subject of many trade rumors for years. He was finally traded from the Houston Astros to the Pittsburgh Pirates this past season, and he has been a consistent pitcher, who has been constantly overlooked because he played for the Astros.

2) Andy Pettitte: Pettitte is an older pitcher, and he just came out of retirement this season in order to play with the New York Yankees. He pitched effectively, but he suffered from an injury mid-season unfortunately.

3) Jason Vargas: Vargas has pitched effectively for the Mariners the past three seasons and now finds himself with the Los Angeles Angels.

4) Ross Detwiler: Detwiler is a pitcher for the Washington Nationals, who was their fifth starter this past season even though he posted a mid 3.00 ERA. This is good production from a fifth starter.

5) Madison Bumgarner: Bumgarner is a pitcher for the San Franscisco Giants. He is a young pitcher who has helped the team win those two championships in the last two years.

Other Considerations: J.A. Happ, Derek Holland, Barry Zito, Mike Minor, etc.






Monday, January 21, 2013

The Top Right Handed Starting Pitchers Right Now

   This is going to be a very intriguing and debatable blog series I am going to start. I am going to rank the top five players at each position. However, the player must meet the following criteria:



1) Have played in the MLB for at least part of 3 seasons (There may be exceptions to this rule-case by case basis).

2) Play at the position listed the majority of the time.

3) Any other criteria I see fit.

   So, without any further delay, here are my top five right handed starter pitchers and the reason(s) why each made my list.


5)    Johnny Cueto: Cueto is possibly the most underrated pitcher in the Majors. Cueto has been in the Show over parts of five seasons, and is only 26 years old. He has a career win-loss record of 60-46, an ERA of 3.57, and he has struck out 702 batters in 904 IP. While his stats don't seem overly impressive, the stats do display the numbers of a work horse. Cueto made my list because he is entering the prime of his career, and has displayed phenomenal potential over the last two seasons. Over the past two seasons, Cueto has compiled an ERA of around 2.55, pitching 373 innings, a win-loss record of 28-14, and has struck out 274 batters. He finished fourth in the Cy Young Award voting this year, however he has never won a major award, or appeared in an All-Star game. Despite this, Cueto has posted excellent numbers for the Cincinatti Reds in Great American Ballpark, which is well renowned as a hitter's park. Cueto clearly flies below the radar, but nonetheless, he is very deserving of claiming the number
five spot on my list.


4)    R.A. Dickey: Dickey like Cueto is a pitcher whose career stats are underwhelming for an Ace at first glance. Seeing as Dickey has posted the following career numbers: ERA: 3.96, 1,059.1 IP, a win-loss record of 61-56, and he has only struck out 739 batters. While Dickey is38, he managed to win the NL CYA, make his first All-Star game appearance, and he struck out a league leading 230 batters. Additionally, over the last three seasons, Dickey has compiled these statistics:
An ERA of 2.95, a win-loss record of 39-28, he has pitched 616.2 innings, and struck out 468 batters. He has posted these statistics while playing with a sub-par club, the New York Mets, and henceforth he surpasses Cueto and lands at number four on my list.


3)    Matt Cain: Cain appeared in one of my recent blog entries, so not as much detail is needed concerning him. However, I will say this, Cain is one of the most consistent pitchers in the MLB. He has played a huge role in helping the San Francisco Giants secure two World Series Championships in three years, has thrown a perfect game, and made three All-Star appearance over parts of eight MLB seasons. And while Cain plays in AT&T Park, which is regarded as a pitcher's park, the guy just knows how to flat out pitch. He does not has a low to mid 90's fastball and off-speed pitches with good movement. He processes these career stats: an ERA of 3.27, a win-loss record of 85-78, 1,536.2 IP, and 1,278 batters struck out. Over the last three seasons, these are Cain's stats: an ERA of 2.94, a win-loss record of 41-27, 664.1 IP, an 548 batters struck out. Cain is a consistent force for the Giants, and it is that consistency that secures Cain at the third spot on my list.


2)    Jered Weaver: Weaver has been an excellent pitcher over parts of seven MLB Seasons. He has posted these numbers thus far in his career: an ERA of 3.24, a win-loss record of 102-52, pitched 1,320.1 innings, and struck out 1,119 batters. He pitches in Angel Stadium, and this park is basically a neutral site for pitchers and hitters alike. Weaver is a similar pitcher to Cain, he throws a low to mid 90's fastball, but has quite a few breaking pitches with good movement. Perhaps though, the most impressive thing about Weaver is his past three seasons. He has compiled an ERA of 2.75, a win-loss record of 51-25, pitched 648.2 innings, and struck out 573 batters. Furthermore, Weaver has appeared in the All-Star game each of the last three seasons, and finished in the Top Five of the American League CYA voting (placing 5th, 2nd, and 3rd respectively). Additionally, Weaver threw a No-Hitter this year, lead the league in winning percentage, had the lowest hit per 9 innings against (H/9), and Walk Plus Innings Pitched (WHIP) at the age of 29. Weaver may not be as well known as the number one pitcher on my list, but It could be debated that Weaver is possibly better than the guy who tops this list...


5)   Justin Verlander: The media and many fans have considered Verlander the best pitcher in baseball for the last few years, but this may be a misconception. Verlander has posted the following career numbers in parts of eight MLB Seasons. An ERA of 3.40, a win-loss record of 124-65, 1,553.2 IP, and 1,454 batters struck out. Unlike Weaver who is more of a finesse pitcher, Verlander is a power pitcher. Verlander can throw his fastball at 100+ MPH, and some dominating breaking pitches. Verlander has accumulated five All-Star appearances, including one in each of the last four seasons. So how does Verlander's past three years compare to Weaver's? The numbers look like this: an ERA of 2.80. A win-loss record of 59-22, 713.2 IP, and he has struck out 708 batters. Perhaps Verlander is considered the best pitcher in baseball right now because he has lead the league in IP, Strikeouts, and
ERA+ each of the last two seasons. Additionally, Verlander lead the league in wins, winning percentage, ERA, H/9 and WHIP in 2011 (Values indicated by the chart below). During the 2011 season he secured the AL CY and MVP Award. Also, Verlander has placed in the Top 3 of the CYA voting three of the last four seasons (finishing 1st, 2nd, and 3rd respectively). So while Weaver may be a better pitcher than Verlander in some respects, I am confident in my choice to place him as the current top right handed starting pitcher on my list.
Year Age W L W-L% ERA IP SO ERA+ WHIP H/9 Awards
2009 26 19 9 .679 3.45 240.0 269 131 1.175 8.2 AS,CYA-3,MVP-20
2010 27 18 9 .667 3.37 224.1 219 124 1.163 7.6 AS,CYA-11
2011 28 24 5 .828 2.40 251.0 250 172 0.920 6.2 AS,CYA-1,MVP-1
2012 29 17 8 .680 2.64 238.1 239 160 1.057 7.3 AS,CYA-2,MVP-8
8 Yrs 124 65 .656 3.40 1553.2 1454 128 1.173 7.8
162 Game Avg. 18 10 .656 3.40 228 213 128 1.173 7.8
Generated 1/20/2013.

Five Additional Considerations (No Particular Order):

1) Roy Halladay: The guy had an injury plagued 2012 as he dealt with a shoulder injury and posted an ERA of 4.49, but this is a guy who just posted a career low (in a full MLB season) ERA in 2011 of 2.35, won the NL CYA in 2010, and placed 2nd in 2011,  but he will soon be 36 years old.

2) Chris Carpenter: He too was hampered by injury and only made three starts, but he helped lead the St. Louis Cardinals in 2011,  and has been a work horse throughout his career. However, he will soon turn 38.

3) Adam Wainwright: One of Carpenter's teammates, he did not pitch at all in 2011, and he has a subpar 2012, but he may regain form, as he is only 31 years old.

4) Kris Medlen: The 26 year old is entering the prime of his career, and he was the Atlanta Braves "Ace in the hole," posting a 1.57 ERA, and pitching 138 innings. However, he missed my list because he did not pitch the whole season at the MLB level, but keep an eye on this guy in the 2013 season.

5) James Shields: There may be better candidates worth mentioning, but "Big Game James" comes to mind because he is an innings eater, a competitor, and he is just a year removed from posting a 2.82 ERA, is onl, and finishing third in the AL CYA voting. Additionally, he just recently turned 31 years old.
 





Monday, January 14, 2013

Bargins From the 2012 Free Agent Market in MLB Position Players

   While there were bargains on the free agent market for relievers, there were also many bargains for position players as well. It's more difficult to compare position by position, so I am going to attempt a general overview. I will look at players such as A.J. Pierzynski, Mike Napoli, Cody Ross, David Ross, and Jonny Gomes.

   A.J. Pierzynski: Pierzynski may be the best bargain from this free agent class. He signed a deal with the Texas Rangers, which was worth $7.5 million. While he will be 36 going into next season, he is durable. Pierzynski has not played in fewer than 114 games since becoming a full time catcher, and he played in 135 games last year at the age of 35. Pierzynski had a career year. He posted a Batting Average of .278, an On-Base Percentage of .326, and an On-Base Plus Slugging Percentage of .827, and he amassed a career high 27 HomeRuns. That's about the best production a team is gonna get from a backstop, now on to David Ross.

   David Ross: Ross compares nicely to Pierzynski. Ross will also be 36 at the start of next season. He will earn $3.1 million while playing for the Boston Red Sox. This was a good signing for the Red Sox. They picked up an excellent defensive catcher with a strong and accurate arm, and he is a veteran as well. Ross will make slightly over 1/3 of what Perzinski will but the offensive production is not worth the contract. Ross posted a BA of .256, an OBP of .321, and an OPS of .770, and he totaled 9 HR. Those are premium numbers for a backup catcher, and the Red Sox didn't overpay much, but an Average Annual Value of $2.75 million would have been more sensible.

   Mike Napoli: Napoli is an interesting case. His deal with the Boston Red Sox has not yet been made official. However, the expected deal is supposed to be for $39 million/3 years. Napoli has age on his side compared to the two players above. Napoli is 31 years old. He is a catcher, however he is expected to play first base for the Red Sox if/when the deal becomes official. Napoli underperformed in his contract year, posting a .227 BA, .343 OBP, and an OPS of .812. He also mashed 24 HR. This is nice production from a catcher, but a major step back from his 2011 campaign. Where the slash line was .320/.414/1.046, all while hitting 30 HR. Napoli had a down year, and he should not have cashed in this big, but this contract speaks for the market especially since Napoli is extremely injury prone.

   Cody Ross: Cody Ross is a versatile outfielder who can play all three outfield positions, but Ross may very well be nothing more than a platoon player for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Despite this fact, Ross cashed in on a solid year. Receiving a contract worth $25 million/3 years. He posted a slash line of .267/.326/.807. He played regularly with Boston this year hitting 22 HR, but keep in mind in parts of 9 seasons, Ross has only hit 20 plus HR three times.

   Jonny Gomes: Jonny Gomes is a platoon player in either outfield corner, but unlike Ross he is a left handed hitter. Gomes signed a contract that is probably accurate concerning his value. Gomes signed a contract with the Boston Red Sox for $10 million/2 years. Gomes posted a slash line of .262/.377/.491. He hit four HR less than Cody Ross, hitting 18 HR. That's nice production from a platoon player, and he comes at a reasonable price.

   All of these players are respectable in their own right. However, evaluating the value of each contract and player, Pierzynski is the best bargain seemingly, and no contract is majorly overpriced. However, Jonny Gomes contract is more valuable than Cody Ross's for similar production.

Monday, January 7, 2013

Bargins from the 2012 Free Agent Market in MLB:Relievers

   Obviously there have been a ton of overpays to free agents on the Free Agent Market. While there have been many lucrative contracts inked this offseason, there have been a few signings which appear to be bargins. (Players who were Non-Tendered will not be covered in this post, since those players are expected to sign for less money than the previous year. Trades will also be excluded).



Ryan Madson and Jason Grilli are both free agent relievers who appear to be bargins.

   Ryan Madson: Madson signed a one year deal with the Angels for the upcoming 2013 season, and he is expected to step in and become their closer. This deal is a bargin compared to the likes of Brandon League and Jonathan Broxton (more on that in a bit), however the deal comes with risk. Madson has only been a closer for one full season with the Philadelphia Phillies, and as a matter of fact, he filled the role nicely. Stepping in for the injured Brad Lidge, Madson saved 32 games while only having two blown saves, had an ERA of 2.37, 62K, and pitched 60.2 innings. That's impressive, but Madson never threw a single pitch in 2012 for the Cincinnati Reds, and he is coming off of Tommy John surgery. And while Madson has only closed for one season full time, he has been a solid reliever over his career.  Posting a 3.59 ERA, accumulating 547K, and pitching 630 innings. Still, this is a nice low risk high reward move by the Angels, as Madson will make a base salary of $3.25 million and a maximum of $6.75 million.

   Jason Grilli: Grilli is a nice baseball story, seeing as how he has been a journeyman over the course of his career. Grilli made his MLB debut in 2000 for the Marlins at the age of 23, and he was not very effective in limited action. The same can be said about Grilli's 2001 season. After 2001, Grilli did not appear in the Majors again until 2004 when he piched gor the White Sox. After 2004, Grilli found a home in Detroit, and he began to become more consistent. Detroit traded Grilli to the Rockies in 2008 and he pitched effectively. However, in 2009 Grilli regressed and he spent the next year and a half in the minors, but he has been a staple in the Pirates bullpen since. Last season, Grilli pitched to a 2.91 ERA, recorded 90K, and pitched 58.2 inning. Grilli's career stat line isn't going to wow anyone, as he has a 4.34 ERA, 389K, and 448IP, but he seems to have found his mojo in Pittsburgh. Moreover, the Pirates need Grilli to step up as their closer following the trade of Joel Hanrahan to the Boston Red Sox. Grilli's contract is for $6.75 million/2 years, and I believe the 36 year old is up to the task.


Jonathan Broxton

  Brandon League


   Jonathan Broxton and Brandon League were both signed to more lucrative offers than Ryan Madson and Jason Grilli were and for good reason. For starters, both Broxton and League are in their late twenties(younger than Madson and Grilli) and they both performed very well after being traded this past season.

   Despite the reasons mentioned above, I am not psyched about the contract these two inked, and that is not to take anything away from these formidable relievers because relievers are so volatile.

   Jonathan Broxton: Broxton is a two time All-Star, deservedly so, and he has endured elbow surgery. Broxton has posted pretty dominant numbers in his career. Broxton has a career ERA of 3.10, 548K, and he has pitched 450 innings. These numbers are very respectable but compared to Madson's numbers, 3 years/20 million(guaranteed) seems like a mistake.

   Brandon League: League has been an All-Star once, in 2011. League has spent his entire MLB career in the American League with the Seattle Mariners, except for the last half of the 2012 season. League has a career ERA of 3.60, has struck out 309 batters, and has pitched 414.2 innings. League's contract is valued at 3 years/$19 million(guaranteed) which is slightly less than Broxton. But the LA Dodgers had plenty of money to spend, so more power to them.

   Broxton and League are very respectable relief pitchers, but Madson and Grilli are respectable in their own right. Each team signed each reliever in order to help their club, and each reliever is very capable of doing so, but for such a volatile role, low risk, high reward is the best way to go.