As the Rangers and Astros open the 2103 MLB Season tonight, here are my thoughts on how the AL West and NL West will shape up. Beginning with the AL West.
AL West: This is a stout division, then again, all the divisions look tougher than they have in the past.
1) Los Angeles Angels (94-68): The Angels look like the clear cut winner of this division, but it also looked that way in 2012 after they signed Albert Pujols. However, this is probably the most powerful lineup in the AL West with Pujols, Mike Trout and Josh Hamilton among others. The bullpen is looks solid but lacks a lot of household names. However, the defense should be a strength for this team. Despite all the positives, the rotation is questionable aside from Jarred Weaver, because C.J. Wilson is returning from an injury plauged 2012 and the rotation includes average pitchers in Tommy Hanson, Jason Vargas and Joe Blanton. Here though, the pros outweigh the cons.
2) Texas Rangers (90-72): The Rangers lost players like Michael Young, Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli. However, they also added valuable pieces in A.J. Perzinski and Lance Berkman. The rotation should be a strength as they will rely on Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, Yu Darvish heavily. Their defense should be solid in the outfield and infield as well.
3) Oakland Athletics (88-74): It's tough to put the defending AL West Champions third in my rankings, but a lot went right for the Athletics last year, and they clenched the division on the final day of the season. The rotation worked like a revolving door last year and it worked, but I wouldn't count on it working as well in 2013. Still, the Athletics have a nice young rotation which features Jarrod Parker, Tommy Milone and others. They also boast solid defense and a young offensive core.
4) Seattle Mariners (80-82): The Mariners recently inked staff Ace Felix Hernandez to a mega contract. Which is a good start for the Mariners, and they also added to their offense by acquiring Michael Morse and Kendrys Morales. They also boast a decent bullpen and an average starting rotation. This should be a good team in a few years, but 2013 does not look like their year. Still, I believe that this is an improved team that will win more games in 2013 than they did in 2012.
5) Houston Astros (62-100): The newest team in the AL West, the Houston Astros have brought in some veteran players like Carlos Pena, but 2013 is not the year of the Astros. This is a team that is young and that is starting to build a solid young core around players such as, Jose Altuve, Bud Norris and Luca Harell. This team has a nice young rotation, bullpen and offense which will actually look dominant at times, but will struggle due to inexperience. And despite that they are beating the Texas Rangers in the sixth as I type this, I can't see this team finishing anywhere but in last place. However, I do believe they will outperform most peoples' expectations.
Overview of Division: I believe any of the top three teams could possibly win this division, but hey, it's baseball and perhaps the Astros and Mariners could somehow by a miracle capture the division crown.
NL West: This division features the defending World Series Champs, and a free spending team along with three teams who showcase All-Stars in their own right.
1) San Francisco Giants (94-86): If it ain't broke, don't fix it, right? Well, the Giants basically kept their 2012 World Series team in tact, and they played sound baseball throughout 2012. If the pitching staff lives up to it's potential, the defense is solid, the offense scores just enough, and the bullpen is lights out again, this team will capture the division title for the third time in three years.
2) Los Angeles Dodgers (90-72): It would be easy to say the Dodgers will win the division. I mean, they have the highest payroll in the MLB and are loaded with All-Stars at nearly every defensive position, as well as a strong looking starting rotation headlined by Clayton Kershaw and Zack Grienke. While they have a solid looking team, they are competing with the defending champs, and chemistry may not mix so I give the edge to the Giants.
3) San Diego Padres (80-82): Chase Headley had a breakout season last season but will miss the first few weeks of the 2013 season. However, aside from Headley, the Padres look like they could be competitive this year. They have an underrated bullpen, but it is a solid pen nonetheless with the likes of Luke Gregerson and Houston Street. The offense may surprise some skeptics, as the fences will be moved in, and the teams young stars seem to be adjusting to the pace in the Majors. This may be the surprise team of 2013.
4) Arizona Diamondbacks (78-84): The Diamondbacks lost some star power with their trade of Justin Upton and Chris Johnson to the Atlanta Braves, but the acquired some solid talent in the deal and probably the most underrated player in baseball in Martin Prado. The offense does not look as potent as it used to, but the offense should be ok. However, if the Diamondbacks are tobe competitive, they will need to lean heavily on the likes of Ian Kennedy, Wade Miley and Brandon McCarthy, along with their solid bullpen.
5) Colorado Rockies (65-97): The Rockies have some good players on their roster such as, Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowiski (Tulo), and some players who have upside like Josh Rutledge. However, while the offense looks solid and the defense should at least be league average, the starting rotation is a major concern. Especially in their home ballpark. Perhaps within the next few seasons, the Rockies will contend, but this is probably not their year.
Overview of Division: It is possible that any of the top four teams could capture the NL West Division crown, and the Giants vs. Dodgers Rivialry should be a fun rivalry to watch.
Tomorrow I will put up my predictions for the NL Central and AL Central up, but until then baseball fans, enjoy opening night.
Sunday, March 31, 2013
Saturday, March 30, 2013
Predictions for the NL East and AL East Divisions
It has been over a month since my last update, and while I stated that my next post would be on catchers, I have decided to post my predictions for each division instead. I will post my entry on catchers when I have more time for analyzation. However for now, here is how I see every division playing out (Note: I am not going into a lot of detail for my reasoning, and the win-loss record prediction is only considering the 162 game season, not considering if each team in the division can win the amount of games predicted because of how many times they play each other). I will list each division in descending order. I will post two divisions at a time, starting with the AL & NL East.
AL East: This is without a doubt the hardest division to predict on paper.
1) Tampa Bay Rays (94-68): The Rays are probably the best run organization in the Majors. The team has a talented pitching rotation which is led by the reigning AL CY Award winner, David Price and 2011 AL Rookie of the Year winner, Jeremy Hellickson. The bullpen situation seems to always work for them as Fernando Rodney posted a ridiculous 0.60 ERA last year after posting a career ERA in the mid 4.00. Offense is always a concern for this team, but they manage to get by and play tight ball games, especially if Evan Longoria stays healthy.
2) Toronto Blue Jays (92-70): This is the best team in the AL East on paper. The Blue Jays underwent a complete overhaul in the offseason, as they acquired Mark Buerhle, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Emilio Bonafacio, and others from the Miami Marlins. They also netted the reigning NL CY Award winner R.A. Dickey and his battery mate Josh Thole from the Mets. Put these new pieces with the pieces the Jays already have like, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encanacion and others, and this is a very formidable ball team. However, the pitching rotation looks like a weakness. Aside from R.A. Dickey, there is not much depth to the rotation, I mean, former ace Rickey Romero is back in Single A making over $7 million. Aside from the rotation, the chemistry of this team may not mesh.
3) Boston Red Sox (88-74): The Red Sox have undergone a complete overhaul of there own. Over the past year, the organization has traded Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett and others. This team no longer contains many of the players fans came to admire in previous seasons, but they have reloaded with the likes of Ryan Dempster, Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli for the upcoming season. Those are some decent players, and they have all been to the post season within the last two years. However, health will be key for the Red Sox this season, as they will need players like Ellsbury and Pedria to stay healthy all year especially with David Ortiz sidelined to begin the season. Not only that, but they will need their starting rotation to dominate the way it has in Spring Training in order to have a shot at the playoffs, but this is a hungry organization that has not seen postseason baseball since 2009 so don't count them out.
4) Baltimore Orioles (85-77): The Orioles had a nice season last year, and while I believe they'll be a winning ball club in 2013 I don't believe they will be heading back to the postseason. Baltimore's rotation could use a boost, but Jason Hammel is solid and Chris Tillman is a promising young arm. The offense is going to need to produce, and things need to break the Orioles way much like it did last year if they want to make it back to the postseason. However, the young Manny Machado should give the Orioles a boost and they should have a lights out bullpen again this year. If the Orioles can duplicate their success from 2012, they can get back to the postseason.
5) New York Yankees (83-79): The Yankees have won the AL East the past three seasons, and I'm not doubting that they could do it again, but they have injury concerns surrounding Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson and Mark Texeria. That leaves Robinson Cano as the lone hitting star for the Yankees, at least for the first week or so. The rotation is solid however, and the bullpen features the greatest closer ever in Mariano Rivera, so they should be able to tread water, but they will need help from an unlikely source(s) such as, the recently acquired Vernon Wells. Even considering the information mentioned above, the Yankees know how to win and no one should be surprised if they capture their fourth consecutive AL East crown.
Overview of Division: No matter how this division shakes out at the end of 2013, no one should be surprised by the result.
NL East: I believe this division will stack up in the same order as it did in 2012.
1) Washington Nationals (100-62): The Nationals are full of young talent, and they have veteran presence. The team was more injury prone than people realize in 2012, and they still led baseball in wins at 98. The Nationals may have the best rotation in baseball top to bottom with: Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman, Ross Detwiler and Dan Harren. The offense is loaded with talent and features phenom Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Laroach, Denard Span and others. The bullpen is solid too. The pen features Tyler Clippard, Drew Storen, Rafeal Soriano and others. Overall, the Nationals are probably the best team as a whole, at least on paper.
2) Atlanta Braves (92-60): The Braves have finished second in the division for the last handful of seasons. They are a consistent team that knows how to win baseball games. Their rotation may not quite stack up with the Nationals, or even the Phillies for that matter, but they have a rotation that has some upside and veteran presence. The rotation includes Tim Hudson, Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, Paul Maholm and Julio Teheran. Not to mention Brandon Beachy who should return sometime in June or July. The rotation may not contain the household names like the Phillies and Nationals, but it is still a solid rotation. The Braves also added power this season, acquiring Justin Upton from the Arizona Diamondbacks and B.J. Upton through free agency. However they lost Martin Prado in the deal, and while this lineup is full of power, it also looks strikeout prone. The Atlanta bullpen is the best in the Majors, as it features Jordan Walden, Johnny Venters, Eric O'Flaherrety, and dominant closer Craig Kimbrel.
3) Philadelphia Phillies (86-76): The Phillies had a down season in 2012. They suffered from injuries, just like every MLB team, but they unlike others were unable to overcome that obstacle. All-Stars Ryan Howard and Chase Utley were out until about mid-season, and former staff ace Roy Halladay suffered from back and shoulder injuries and looks to be declining. Cliff Lee had a better year than most people realize and was bad luck prone. Still, the Phillies are full of players who know how to win, and if the starting staff holds up, it may still be one of the best in baseball. However, Halladay will need to bounce back, Cole Hamels needs a repeat or better of 2012, Lee needs better luck, Kyle Kendrick needs to be successful like he was the last half of 2012 and John Lanan has to be an innings eater that keeps the team in ball games. The offense needs to stay healthy, and the team needs to play solid defense. Carlos Ruiz will be missing the first 25 games due to suspension, but surely the team will be fine until he returns. The bullpen should be better in large part thanks to Mike Adams. The Phillies need a lot to break their way if they want to get back to the postseason and health is the biggest factor.
4) New York Mets (70-92): The Mets were competitors in the first half of 2012, but they went free falling in the later half of 2012. They have traded CY Award winner R.A. Dickey, not to mention Johan Santana may not pitch this season or ever again, and the pitching staff is weaker because of it. However, they do have some young pitchers who have great potential in Jon Niese, Dillion Gee, Matt Harvey and others. The bullpen was one of if not the worst in 2012 and probably won't be much better in 2013. The offense is nothing to brag about, other than David Wright and potential someone like Ike Davis, but Travis D'Arnaud could make an impact at some point in 2013. Despite all this, I believe the Mets will outperform expectations.
5) Miami Marlins (60-102): Well, the Marlins forayed into the free agent market in 2012, picking up Jose Reyes, Mark Buherle and others, and were picked to go to the World Series. However, they failed miserably and by the end of 2012, all of their free agent signings were gone, along with others like Josh Johnson and Hanley Ramirez. The Marlins recieved plenty of minor league talent in their dealings, but they failed to acquire any prospect(s) that knowingly have future major potential. They got a bunch of salary relief, but that was about it. The offense does not look good outside of Giancarlo Stanton. Ditto, the pitching rotation outside of Ricky Nolasco and the bullpen outside of Steve Cishek. The Marlins most likely won't win this season or anywhere in the near future.
Overview of Division: The Nationals will probably win this division, but don't count the Braves or Phillies out, especially if things break right for those teams.
AL East: This is without a doubt the hardest division to predict on paper.
1) Tampa Bay Rays (94-68): The Rays are probably the best run organization in the Majors. The team has a talented pitching rotation which is led by the reigning AL CY Award winner, David Price and 2011 AL Rookie of the Year winner, Jeremy Hellickson. The bullpen situation seems to always work for them as Fernando Rodney posted a ridiculous 0.60 ERA last year after posting a career ERA in the mid 4.00. Offense is always a concern for this team, but they manage to get by and play tight ball games, especially if Evan Longoria stays healthy.
2) Toronto Blue Jays (92-70): This is the best team in the AL East on paper. The Blue Jays underwent a complete overhaul in the offseason, as they acquired Mark Buerhle, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Emilio Bonafacio, and others from the Miami Marlins. They also netted the reigning NL CY Award winner R.A. Dickey and his battery mate Josh Thole from the Mets. Put these new pieces with the pieces the Jays already have like, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encanacion and others, and this is a very formidable ball team. However, the pitching rotation looks like a weakness. Aside from R.A. Dickey, there is not much depth to the rotation, I mean, former ace Rickey Romero is back in Single A making over $7 million. Aside from the rotation, the chemistry of this team may not mesh.
3) Boston Red Sox (88-74): The Red Sox have undergone a complete overhaul of there own. Over the past year, the organization has traded Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett and others. This team no longer contains many of the players fans came to admire in previous seasons, but they have reloaded with the likes of Ryan Dempster, Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli for the upcoming season. Those are some decent players, and they have all been to the post season within the last two years. However, health will be key for the Red Sox this season, as they will need players like Ellsbury and Pedria to stay healthy all year especially with David Ortiz sidelined to begin the season. Not only that, but they will need their starting rotation to dominate the way it has in Spring Training in order to have a shot at the playoffs, but this is a hungry organization that has not seen postseason baseball since 2009 so don't count them out.
4) Baltimore Orioles (85-77): The Orioles had a nice season last year, and while I believe they'll be a winning ball club in 2013 I don't believe they will be heading back to the postseason. Baltimore's rotation could use a boost, but Jason Hammel is solid and Chris Tillman is a promising young arm. The offense is going to need to produce, and things need to break the Orioles way much like it did last year if they want to make it back to the postseason. However, the young Manny Machado should give the Orioles a boost and they should have a lights out bullpen again this year. If the Orioles can duplicate their success from 2012, they can get back to the postseason.
5) New York Yankees (83-79): The Yankees have won the AL East the past three seasons, and I'm not doubting that they could do it again, but they have injury concerns surrounding Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson and Mark Texeria. That leaves Robinson Cano as the lone hitting star for the Yankees, at least for the first week or so. The rotation is solid however, and the bullpen features the greatest closer ever in Mariano Rivera, so they should be able to tread water, but they will need help from an unlikely source(s) such as, the recently acquired Vernon Wells. Even considering the information mentioned above, the Yankees know how to win and no one should be surprised if they capture their fourth consecutive AL East crown.
Overview of Division: No matter how this division shakes out at the end of 2013, no one should be surprised by the result.
NL East: I believe this division will stack up in the same order as it did in 2012.
1) Washington Nationals (100-62): The Nationals are full of young talent, and they have veteran presence. The team was more injury prone than people realize in 2012, and they still led baseball in wins at 98. The Nationals may have the best rotation in baseball top to bottom with: Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman, Ross Detwiler and Dan Harren. The offense is loaded with talent and features phenom Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Laroach, Denard Span and others. The bullpen is solid too. The pen features Tyler Clippard, Drew Storen, Rafeal Soriano and others. Overall, the Nationals are probably the best team as a whole, at least on paper.
2) Atlanta Braves (92-60): The Braves have finished second in the division for the last handful of seasons. They are a consistent team that knows how to win baseball games. Their rotation may not quite stack up with the Nationals, or even the Phillies for that matter, but they have a rotation that has some upside and veteran presence. The rotation includes Tim Hudson, Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, Paul Maholm and Julio Teheran. Not to mention Brandon Beachy who should return sometime in June or July. The rotation may not contain the household names like the Phillies and Nationals, but it is still a solid rotation. The Braves also added power this season, acquiring Justin Upton from the Arizona Diamondbacks and B.J. Upton through free agency. However they lost Martin Prado in the deal, and while this lineup is full of power, it also looks strikeout prone. The Atlanta bullpen is the best in the Majors, as it features Jordan Walden, Johnny Venters, Eric O'Flaherrety, and dominant closer Craig Kimbrel.
3) Philadelphia Phillies (86-76): The Phillies had a down season in 2012. They suffered from injuries, just like every MLB team, but they unlike others were unable to overcome that obstacle. All-Stars Ryan Howard and Chase Utley were out until about mid-season, and former staff ace Roy Halladay suffered from back and shoulder injuries and looks to be declining. Cliff Lee had a better year than most people realize and was bad luck prone. Still, the Phillies are full of players who know how to win, and if the starting staff holds up, it may still be one of the best in baseball. However, Halladay will need to bounce back, Cole Hamels needs a repeat or better of 2012, Lee needs better luck, Kyle Kendrick needs to be successful like he was the last half of 2012 and John Lanan has to be an innings eater that keeps the team in ball games. The offense needs to stay healthy, and the team needs to play solid defense. Carlos Ruiz will be missing the first 25 games due to suspension, but surely the team will be fine until he returns. The bullpen should be better in large part thanks to Mike Adams. The Phillies need a lot to break their way if they want to get back to the postseason and health is the biggest factor.
4) New York Mets (70-92): The Mets were competitors in the first half of 2012, but they went free falling in the later half of 2012. They have traded CY Award winner R.A. Dickey, not to mention Johan Santana may not pitch this season or ever again, and the pitching staff is weaker because of it. However, they do have some young pitchers who have great potential in Jon Niese, Dillion Gee, Matt Harvey and others. The bullpen was one of if not the worst in 2012 and probably won't be much better in 2013. The offense is nothing to brag about, other than David Wright and potential someone like Ike Davis, but Travis D'Arnaud could make an impact at some point in 2013. Despite all this, I believe the Mets will outperform expectations.
5) Miami Marlins (60-102): Well, the Marlins forayed into the free agent market in 2012, picking up Jose Reyes, Mark Buherle and others, and were picked to go to the World Series. However, they failed miserably and by the end of 2012, all of their free agent signings were gone, along with others like Josh Johnson and Hanley Ramirez. The Marlins recieved plenty of minor league talent in their dealings, but they failed to acquire any prospect(s) that knowingly have future major potential. They got a bunch of salary relief, but that was about it. The offense does not look good outside of Giancarlo Stanton. Ditto, the pitching rotation outside of Ricky Nolasco and the bullpen outside of Steve Cishek. The Marlins most likely won't win this season or anywhere in the near future.
Overview of Division: The Nationals will probably win this division, but don't count the Braves or Phillies out, especially if things break right for those teams.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)