Saturday, December 29, 2012

Compare and Contracts

    In this entry I am going to compare the three players, mentioned in my previous blog entry, to players that seem to share similar stats. I will begin with Zack Greinke, whom I am going to compare to Matt Cain, Cole Hamels and Justin Verlander:

   Zack Greinke: As I established in my previous blog entry, Greinke signed the richest contract for a right handed pitcher in MLB history at $147 million/6 years. That is obviously a ton of money, and while Greinke has nice credentials and value, it is tough to believe that he received this type of money compared to some of his closely comparable peers.  Over parts of nine MLB seasons, Greinke has a win-loss record of 91-78, an ERA of 3.77, he has 1,492 IP, and he has struck out 1,332 batters. These are the stats people tend to look at to determine if a pitcher is a legitimate "Ace". Greinke boasts a pretty good stat line especially since he has pitched the bulk of his career in the American League. Some would argue that comparing one pitcher's value and ERA to another pitcher's value and ERA is not a justifiable basis for comparison due to various factors. Therefore, I will take this analyzation a little further. Greinke has accumulated a career WAR(Wins Above Replacement) of 29.5. The statistic WAR indicates how much more valuable a player is than his replacement would be. Greinke has a cumulative career ERA+ of 114. ERA+ adjusts to a pitcher's league and ballpark factors. The higher the ERA+, the better the pitcher is. Greinke has very respectable stats, and he will provide a nice 1-2 punch in the Dodgers rotation with Clayton Kershaw.  He won the AL CY Young award in 2009, but  has only one All-Star appearance. Looking at accolades and statics objectively, he does not quite measure up with Cain, Hamels, and Verlander.

   Matt Cain: Cain is the closest comparison to Greinke in this group. Cain is right handed just like Greinke, Cain has been in the majors through parts of eight major league seasons, and he signed an extension of his own with the San Francisco Giants less than a year ago. Cain's extension is a guaranteed $127.5 million/6 years, and includes an option which can push the deal to $141 million/7 years. To put that in perspective, Cain will make $19.5 millon less than Greinke over the guaranteed life of the contract, and would still make $6 million less than Greinke if the option goes into effect. This is shocking since Cain's numbers are superior to Greinke's in most categories. Cain has a win-loss record of 85-78, an ERA of 3.27, he has 1,536.2 IP, and he has struck out 1,278 batters. While Cain trails Greinke in wins, and strikeouts, he boasts a better ERA and has pitched more innings. Keep in mind that Cain has pitched in only 236 games compared to Greinke's 272. Furthermore, Cain has compiled a career WAR of 29.2, barely trailing Greinke's 29.5. Cain has also compiled an ERA+ of 124 over his career, besting Greinke by a full ten points. However, Cain has never won a single CY Young Award, in fact he has never finished higher than sixth place on the ballot, but Cain has three All-Star appearances to Greinke's one. Cain and Greinke compare favorably to one another, and people could argue about who is better all day, unless postseason stats were included...then Cain has the advantage by far. Aside from Greinke and Cain, there is also Cole Hamels who has been compared to Matt Cain for many years, especially after Cain signed his extension. Then there is Justin Verlander...(The second entry of part 1 will be posted within the next few days).
(All statistics and other data were compiled from www.baseballreference.com)
(Pictures Curtesy of Google Images)

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