Monday, August 19, 2013

Top Catchers in MLB Right Now

   I have finally gotten back to my series of blog posts which feature the top five players in baseball at each position respectively. When it comes to the catching position, defense and game calling are the most important aspects. If a catcher can hit for average and/or power, that is a bonus. So, below are my top five catchers:


5)    Carlos Ruiz: Ruiz had a career year in 2012. The Philadelphia Phillies catcher hit .325 with a 16HR. Both of which were career best for the then 33 year old catcher. However, to begin the 2013 season, Ruiz was suspended 25 games for reportedly testing positive for a banned stimulant a second time. The stimulant was believed to be Aderall. So far this year in 62 games for the Phillies, Ruiz has hit .265, and  he has hit three home runs this season. Despite the down season, Ruiz has been a fairly good hitter throughout his career, batting .274, with 313 RBI and 55HR over a career spanning parts of eight seasons. Despite Ruiz's respectable hitting, he makes my list basically because of his defense. He has caught 28% of base stealers throughout his career and has a career .995 fielding percentage. While there are no stats for such a thing, Ruiz's most valuable asset is his game calling which make arguably the best in the Majors.

4)    Brian McCann: McCann had a down season in 2012 as he battled shoulder issues throughout the season. In 2012, McCann hit a meager .230, but he also still managed to hit 20HR with 67 RBI. Typically, these are good power numbers for a catcher, but the 20HR were the fewest McCann had hit since 2007, when he hit 18HR. Additionally, the 67 RBI's were the fewest of McCann's career in a full season. Fortunately, McCann is having an excellent bounce back season thus far. He is currently batting .272 with 18HR and 47 RBI in 76 games. McCann has never been regarded as an excellent defender, but he has caught 24% of base stealers(28% league average), while posting a .991 fielding percentage. McCann's career fielding percentage is just a tick below the league average of .992. Regardless, McCann is one of the best catchers in all of baseball.
 

3)   Joe Mauer: Mauer is one of the best, if not the best hitting catcher in baseball period. Mauer bounced back in a huge way in 2012 as he hit .319 with 10HR and 47RBI. He played in 147 games last season(not all as a catcher), and he led the American League in On Base Percentage, posting a .416 clip. For his career, Mauer has posted a .323BA, 105HR and 634RBI. Mauer is a great defender as well. Mauer, has thrown out 33% of base stealers throughout his career(27% league average), while putting up a fielding percentage of .995 for his career which exceeds the league average of a .991 fielding percentage. Mauer for some reason seems to be largely underrated throughout the game of baseball, despite the fact that he won the American League MVP Award in 2009 and being a six time All-Star.

2)   Buster Posey: In just three seasons, Posey has already been named NL MVP(2012), NL Rookie of the Year(2010); not only has Posey earned these prestigious honors, but he has already been part of two World Series Championship Teams(2010 & 2012) with the San Francisco Giants. After rebounding from a season ending injury in 2011, Posey posted astounding numbers in 2012. In 2012, Posey hit .336(leading the NL), smashing 24HR and driving in 103 runners. For his career, Posey has posted a .303BA, hit 60HR and accumulated 252 RBI. Posey possesses a strong throwing arm, catching 32% of base runners in his short career. He has however been knocked for his defensive ability and plays pretty reguarly at first base, but Posey is one of the best backstops in the game, and at the age of 26 he has plenty of time to add to his already promising career.


1)   Yadier Molina: There is no better all-around catcher in baseball than Yadier Molina. Molina has a phenomenal throwing arm, is a great game-caller, and he has figured out how to hit to top it all off. In 2012, Molina hit a robust .315, notching 22HR and knocking in 76 runners. For his career, Molina has hit .284 with 86HR while accumulating 522RBI. Unlike Posey, Molina does not have an MVP Award to his credit, but he does have two World Series Rings(2006 & 2011). He has managed to throw out an astounding 45% of would be base stealers in his ten year career, and he has five consecutive gold gloves to show for his incredible catching skills. Put it all together and Molina is on his way to being one of the better catchers to ever play the game, and that is why he tops this list.

Others:

A.J. Pierzynski, Matt Wieters, J.P. Arencibia, Etc.

Monday, July 29, 2013

A link between Derek Jeter and Chase Utley

   It's been awhile since I have updated my blog, and I am currently working on a post about the top five catchers in the game right now, but with the trade deadline quickly approaching, I wanted to take the time to talk about that. This is not one of my typical blog posts with lots of stats/predictions/comparisons. This post has a specific purpose, I am not going to focus much on trades that have happened and how the market is shaping up. I mean in essence, Matt Garza has been traded to the Rangers, Jesse Crain to the Rays, Scott Downs to the Braves, Alfonso Soriano to the Yankees and so on. I am not saying that these trades are minute; the trades will all clearly help determine games down the stretch and during the playoffs. However, I posted about the Phillies last year and will do the same this year. Unlike last year though, I am not going to focus on the whole team, but rather on my favorite player, Chase Utley.
   Derek Jeter was the player who really got me into baseball, as I watched him play stellar defense and hit with the best of them. Despite the fact that Jeter got me into watching MLB heavily in 2006, it was ultimately Utley who made me appreciate baseball even more. Utley was the one player that I learned the most from by watching, and the player that I realized played baseball the way that it should be played. As cliche as it sounds, Utley hustles during every play no matter the score or inning, never gives up an at bat and is a leader not only on the field but off the field as well. The Phillies have become sellers as they have lost eight straight and fallen seven games below .500 and fallen back to third in the NL East. As a fan of the Phillies I realize that it is time to sale anyone who may not be a fit for this team over the next few seasons. If the price is right, I am not against the Phillies trading Cliff Lee or anyone else for that matter. I would except whatever they could get for Delmon Young or Michael Young, because this team needs to be restructured. However, selfishly, I want the Phillies to hang onto Utley for the rest of his career. The reason simply being that Utley is the player I modeled my own game after, a player I have tons of respect for, and the reason I became a fan of the Philadelphia Phillies in the first place. 



   At the same time, if the Phillies cannot reach a reasonable extension with Utley, say 2 or 3 years/12million per year(at most) with a club or vesting option, then they should entertain offers for their All-Star Second Baseman. I mean, Utley will be 35 in December, and he has a chronic knee condition. Now the condition has not hampered him this year as he has hit 13HR, has 36RBI and a .274BA, which are solid numbers. But, his leg condition is not going away, it may even get worse and he is not getting any younger. If the Phillies were to trade Utley, they would need to get at least the value of a compensation pick back in next years draft if not more. The Phillies should not just "give" Utley away. 
   If Utley wants to stay, be traded or walk at the end of the season, he has earned the right. A trade may even be in Utley's best interest as well. I know the Phillies are currently working on an extension for Utley, but who knows what the outcome may be. Utley may have played his last game as a Phillie yesterday afternoon or may have many more to come. Either way, Utley will always be a Phillie to me  my favorite player, and I will follow his career no matter what the outcome is.    

Sunday, June 23, 2013

World Series Predictions, MVP, ROY & CY Young

   I should have done this awhile back, but I'll predict the playoffs by using my previous entries and revealing who I believed would win certain awards at the beginning of the season.

Wild Card Round (AL): Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays-Rangers  win the game.

Wild Card Round (NL): Atlanta Braves vs. Loa Angeles Dodgers-Braves win the game.

ALDS: Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers-Rangers in four.

ALDS: Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays-Tigers in five.

NLDS: Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals-Nationals in five.

NLDS: Cincinatti Reds vs. San Francisco Giants-Reds in four.

ALCS: Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers-Tigers in six.

NLCS: Washington Nationals vs. Cincinati Reds-Reds in seven.

World Series: Cincinati Reds vs. Detroit Tigers-Tigers in five.

Here are links to my previous entries:

AL/NL East, AL/NL Central, AL/NL West


AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera

NL MVP: Joey Votto

AL RoY: Aaron Hicks

NL RoY: A.J. Pollock

AL CY Young: Justin Verlander

NL CY Young: Clayton Kershaw

   In my next blog I will talk about the best catchers currently playing.





Tuesday, April 2, 2013

Predicting the AL Central and NL Central

   Both Central Divisions improved drastically over the course of the offseason and during Spring Training. My thoughts:



AL Central: The Indians and Royals made intriguing trades, the Twins dealt from an area of strength to help strengthen weaker areas of their roster, the White Sox flamed out in September last year and Detroit still looks like a force to be reckoned with.

1) Detroit Tigers (92-70): Let's make this short and simple. The Tigers scuffled at times during the 2012 season, but let's face it. They have a stellar rotation, offense, along with solid defense and a solid bullpen. The players feature the likes of Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Tori Hunter. The Achilles hill for this team may be not having a set established closer, but they'll manage as they did in the 2012 postseason.

2) Chicago White Sox (84-78): The White Sox played solid baseball for the most part in 2012, before flaming out down the stretch. Still this should be a decent team if Chris Sale repeats his 2012 success, Jake Peavy has really regained his Ace form and the bullpen and offense produce like they should. Time will tell, but don't count the White Sox out.

3) Kansas City Royals (80-82): This is a revamped ball club. The Royals have decided to go for it in 2013. They traded top prospect Will Meyers and other notable prospects to the Tampa Bay Rays in order to solidify their rotation with James Shields and Wade Davis. The rotation looks solid, and the bullpen and offense are underrated, so don't take this prediction with a grain of salt, but despite the aforementioned information, I do not see the Royals returning to the postseason for the first time in over two decades.

4) Cleavland Indians (74-88): This prediction seems like a knock on the Indians who spent big on the free agent market, signing Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher and others. However, I just believe that the three teams above are that solid. The Indians' offense should be much improved, even with the trade of Shin Soo Choo. But, the bullpen can be shaky and a question mark, and will need to be improved if the Indians want to taste postseason baseball in 2013.

5) Minnesota Twins (70-92): I believe the Twins will be better than most are giving them credit for, but I don't think they are going to shock the baseball world by clinching the AL Central. The rotation does not feature an Ace, but rather quite a few solid starting pitchers. The Twins should have a decent offense and bullpen, but the defense is questionable. They traded from an area of strenghth when trading Denard Span to the Nationals to acquire young starting pitcher Alex Meyer, and Ben Revere to the Phillies for Vance Worley and prospect Trevor May. The Twins improved their roster, however, they sacraficed defense to do so. While I would not just dismiss this team, I don't see them regaining the dominant form they once displayed about four years ago. 2013 is just not it for the Twins.

Overview of Division: Really, the Twins are the only team that would shock me if they won the division, or even made the playoffs, and it still would not surprise me all that much. That said, this should be a fun division to watch in 2013.



NL Central: This division is just as competitive if not more so than the AL Central. The Reds and Cardinals are the dominant forces, but the Cubs, Pirates and Brewers could easily give the top two a run for their money.

1) Cincinnati Reds (93-69): This is a very sound team with very few holes. The offense, starting rotation, bullpen and defense are all stellar. The rotation seems to get better every year, there are a few gold glovers on the team, and the offense is stacked with All-Star potential.

2) St. Louis Cardinals (89-73): If their is a franchise that seems to consistently be in the postseason or close to being in the post season, this is the team. They have won more Championships than any other National League Franchise, and they are solid much like the Reds are. The rotation is solid even without Kyle Lohse, the offense was just fine without Albert Pujols last year, and the bullpen can dominate from time to time. The Cardinals know how to play baseball, and they'll prove it again in 2013.

3) Pittsburgh Pirates (83-79): Look at the record I predicted, that's right, I believe that the Pirates will finish above .500 in 2013. But in order for that to happen, Andrew Mccutchen needs to continue to evolve and players like Garrett Jones and Pedro Alvarez need to step up. The defense will most likely be solid, but the starting rotation and bullpen are both seemingly huge question marks.

4) Milwaukee Brewers (81-81): This team is a little bit down to begin 2013. They are missing Corey Hart and Matt Gamel for at least the first few months, and the offense will take a hit because of it. However, they still have Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez and as long as they hit, the offense will tread water. The rotation looks better than it did two weeks ago, as the Brewers have added Kyle Lohse to coplement Shaun Marcum, a nice 1-2 punch. However the rest of the rotation is largely unestablished. The defense should at least be average, but the bullpen needs to outperform expectations if the Brewers want to go to the postseason or anything better.

5) Chicago Cubs (79-83): This club has improved a good bit, I still believe they'll be a losing ball team in 2013, but they are at least headed in the right direction. They added Edwin Jackson to stabilize their rotation, which is better than most realize, but it does not help that Matt Garza is on the DL. The defense is probably below average, especially with gold glover Darwin Barney on the DL. The bullpen has some potential, but the Cubs need Carlos Marmol to be the good Marmol, not the Marmol who has no command. This is a team with some young players who have huge upside, and I think within two years this team will make a run at the division crown, but that's in 2015 and this is 2013. However, that is not to say that the Cubs can't/won't be a winning ball team this year.

Overview of Division: It is a long season and this is a competitive division. If things pan out right for a few of these teams and the others struggle, any one of these teams could take the NL Central.

Sunday, March 31, 2013

Predicting the AL West and NL West

   As the Rangers and Astros open the 2103 MLB Season tonight, here are my thoughts on how the AL West and NL West will shape up. Beginning with the AL West.


AL West: This is a stout division, then again, all the divisions look tougher than they have in the past.

1) Los Angeles Angels (94-68): The Angels look like the clear cut winner of this division, but it also looked that way in 2012 after they signed Albert Pujols. However, this is probably the most powerful lineup in the AL West with Pujols, Mike Trout and Josh Hamilton among others. The bullpen is looks solid but lacks a lot of household names. However, the defense should be a strength for this team. Despite all the positives, the rotation is questionable aside from Jarred Weaver, because C.J. Wilson is returning from an injury plauged 2012 and the rotation includes average pitchers in Tommy Hanson, Jason Vargas and Joe Blanton. Here though, the pros outweigh the cons.

2) Texas Rangers (90-72): The Rangers lost players like Michael Young, Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli. However, they also added valuable pieces in A.J. Perzinski and Lance Berkman. The rotation should be a strength as they will rely on Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, Yu Darvish heavily. Their defense should be solid in the outfield and infield as well.

3) Oakland Athletics (88-74): It's tough to put the defending AL West Champions third in my rankings, but a lot went right for the Athletics last year, and they clenched the division on the final day of the season. The rotation worked like a revolving door last year and it worked, but I wouldn't count on it working as well in 2013. Still, the Athletics have a nice young rotation which features Jarrod Parker, Tommy Milone and others. They also boast solid defense and a young offensive core.

4) Seattle Mariners (80-82): The Mariners recently inked staff Ace Felix Hernandez to a mega contract. Which is a good start for the Mariners, and they also added to their offense by acquiring Michael Morse and Kendrys Morales. They also boast a decent bullpen and an average starting rotation. This should be a good team in a few years, but 2013 does not look like their year. Still, I believe that this is an improved team that will win more games in 2013 than they did in 2012.

5) Houston Astros (62-100): The newest team in the AL West, the Houston Astros have brought in some veteran players like Carlos Pena, but 2013 is not the year of the Astros. This is a team that is young and that is starting to build a solid young core around players such as, Jose Altuve, Bud Norris and Luca Harell. This team has a nice young rotation, bullpen and offense which will actually look dominant at times, but will struggle due to inexperience. And despite that they are beating the Texas Rangers in the sixth as I type this, I can't see this team finishing anywhere but in last place. However, I do believe they will outperform most peoples' expectations.

Overview of Division: I believe any of the top three teams could possibly win this division, but hey, it's baseball and perhaps the Astros and Mariners could somehow by a miracle capture the division crown.



NL West: This division features the defending World Series Champs, and a free spending team along with three teams who showcase All-Stars in their own right.

1) San Francisco Giants (94-86): If it ain't broke, don't fix it, right? Well, the Giants basically kept their 2012 World Series team in tact, and they played sound baseball throughout 2012. If the pitching staff lives up to it's potential, the defense is solid, the offense scores just enough, and the bullpen is lights out again, this team will capture the division title for the third time in three years.

2) Los Angeles Dodgers (90-72): It would be easy to say the Dodgers will win the division. I mean, they have the highest payroll in the MLB and are loaded with All-Stars at nearly every defensive position, as well as a strong looking starting rotation headlined by Clayton Kershaw and Zack Grienke. While they have a solid looking team, they are competing with the defending champs, and chemistry may not mix so I give the edge to the Giants.

3) San Diego Padres (80-82): Chase Headley had a breakout season last season but will miss the first few weeks of the 2013 season. However, aside from Headley, the Padres look like they could be competitive this year. They have an underrated bullpen, but it is a solid pen nonetheless with the likes of Luke Gregerson and Houston Street. The offense may surprise some skeptics, as the fences will be moved in, and the teams young stars seem to be adjusting to the pace in the Majors. This may be the surprise team of 2013.

4) Arizona Diamondbacks (78-84): The Diamondbacks lost some star power with their trade of Justin Upton and Chris Johnson to the Atlanta Braves, but the acquired some solid talent in the deal and probably the most underrated player in baseball in Martin Prado. The offense does not look as potent as it used to, but the offense should be ok. However, if the Diamondbacks are tobe competitive, they will need to lean heavily on the likes of Ian Kennedy, Wade Miley and Brandon McCarthy, along with their solid bullpen.

5) Colorado Rockies (65-97): The Rockies have some good players on their roster such as, Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowiski (Tulo), and some players who have upside like Josh Rutledge. However, while the offense looks solid and the defense should at least be league average, the starting rotation is a major concern. Especially in their home ballpark. Perhaps within the next few seasons, the Rockies will contend, but this is probably not their year.

Overview of Division: It is possible that any of the top four teams could capture the NL West Division crown, and the Giants vs. Dodgers Rivialry should be a fun rivalry to watch.

   Tomorrow I will put up my predictions for the NL Central and AL Central up, but until then baseball fans, enjoy opening night.
 

Saturday, March 30, 2013

Predictions for the NL East and AL East Divisions

   It has been over a month since my last update, and while I stated that my next post would be on catchers, I have decided to post my predictions for each division instead. I will post my entry on catchers when I have more time for analyzation. However for now, here is how I see every division playing out (Note: I am not going into a lot of detail for my reasoning, and the win-loss record prediction is only considering the 162 game season, not considering if each team in the division can win the amount of games predicted because of how many times they play each other). I will list each division in descending order. I will post two divisions at a time, starting with the AL & NL East.

AL East:  This is without a doubt the hardest division to predict on paper.

1) Tampa Bay Rays (94-68): The Rays are probably the best run organization in the Majors. The team has a talented pitching rotation which is led by the reigning AL CY Award winner, David Price and 2011 AL Rookie of the Year winner, Jeremy Hellickson. The bullpen situation seems to always work for them as Fernando Rodney posted a ridiculous 0.60 ERA last year after posting a career ERA in the mid 4.00. Offense is always a concern for this team, but they manage to get by and play tight ball games, especially if Evan Longoria stays healthy.

2) Toronto Blue Jays (92-70): This is the best team in the AL East on paper. The Blue Jays underwent a complete overhaul in the offseason, as they acquired Mark Buerhle, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Emilio Bonafacio, and others from the Miami Marlins. They also netted the reigning NL CY Award winner R.A. Dickey and his battery mate Josh Thole from the Mets. Put these new pieces with the pieces the Jays already have like, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encanacion and others, and this is a very formidable ball team. However, the pitching rotation looks like a weakness. Aside from R.A. Dickey, there is not much depth to the rotation, I mean, former ace Rickey Romero is back in Single A making over $7 million. Aside from the rotation, the chemistry of this team may not mesh.

3) Boston Red Sox (88-74): The Red Sox have undergone a complete overhaul of there own. Over the past year, the organization has traded Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett and others. This team no longer contains many of the players fans came to admire in previous seasons, but they have reloaded with the likes of Ryan Dempster, Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli for the upcoming season. Those are some decent players, and they have all been to the post season within the last two years. However, health will be key for the Red Sox this season, as they will need players like Ellsbury and Pedria to stay healthy all year especially with David Ortiz sidelined to begin the season. Not only that, but they will need their starting rotation to dominate the way it has in Spring Training in order to have a shot at the playoffs, but this is a hungry organization that has not seen postseason baseball since 2009 so don't count them out.

4) Baltimore Orioles (85-77): The Orioles had a nice season last year, and while I believe they'll be a winning ball club in 2013 I don't believe they will be heading back to the postseason. Baltimore's rotation could use a boost, but Jason Hammel is solid and Chris Tillman is a promising young arm. The offense is going to need to produce, and things need to break the Orioles way much like it did last year if they want to make it back to the postseason. However, the young Manny Machado should give the Orioles a boost and they should have a lights out bullpen again this year. If the Orioles can duplicate their success from 2012, they can get back to the postseason.

5) New York Yankees (83-79): The Yankees have won the AL East the past three seasons, and I'm not doubting that they could do it again, but they have injury concerns surrounding Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson and Mark Texeria. That leaves Robinson Cano as the lone hitting star for the Yankees, at least for the first week or so. The rotation is solid however, and the bullpen features the greatest closer ever in Mariano Rivera, so they should be able to tread water, but they will need help from an unlikely source(s) such as, the recently acquired Vernon Wells. Even considering the information mentioned above, the Yankees know how to win and no one should be surprised if they capture their fourth consecutive AL East crown.

Overview of Division: No matter how this division shakes out at the end of 2013, no one should be surprised by the result.


NL East: I believe this division will stack up in the same order as it did in 2012.

1) Washington Nationals (100-62): The Nationals are full of young talent, and they have veteran presence. The team was more injury prone than people realize in 2012, and they still led baseball in wins at 98. The Nationals may have the best rotation in baseball top to bottom with: Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman, Ross Detwiler and Dan Harren. The offense is loaded with talent and features phenom Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Laroach, Denard Span and others. The bullpen is solid too. The pen features Tyler Clippard, Drew Storen, Rafeal Soriano and others. Overall, the Nationals are probably the best team as a whole, at least on paper.

2) Atlanta Braves (92-60): The Braves have finished second in the division for the last handful of seasons. They are a consistent team that knows how to win baseball games. Their rotation may not quite stack up with the Nationals, or even the Phillies for that matter, but they have a rotation that has some upside and veteran presence. The rotation includes Tim Hudson, Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, Paul Maholm and Julio Teheran. Not to mention Brandon Beachy who should return sometime in June or July. The rotation may not contain the household names like the Phillies and Nationals, but it is still a solid rotation. The Braves also added power this season, acquiring Justin Upton from the Arizona Diamondbacks and B.J. Upton through free agency. However they lost Martin Prado in the deal, and while this lineup is full of power, it also looks strikeout prone. The Atlanta bullpen is the best in the Majors, as it features Jordan Walden, Johnny Venters, Eric O'Flaherrety, and dominant closer Craig Kimbrel.

3) Philadelphia Phillies (86-76): The Phillies had a down season in 2012. They suffered from injuries, just like every MLB team, but they unlike others were unable to overcome that obstacle. All-Stars Ryan Howard and Chase Utley were out until about mid-season, and former staff ace Roy Halladay suffered from back and shoulder injuries and looks to be declining. Cliff Lee had a better year than most people realize and was bad luck prone. Still, the Phillies are full of players who know how to win, and if the starting staff holds up, it may still be one of the best in baseball. However, Halladay will need to bounce back, Cole Hamels needs a repeat or better of 2012, Lee needs better luck, Kyle Kendrick needs to be successful like he was the last half of 2012 and John Lanan has to be an innings eater that keeps the team in ball games. The offense needs to stay healthy, and the team needs to play solid defense. Carlos Ruiz will be missing the first 25 games due to suspension, but surely the team will be fine until he returns. The bullpen should be better in large part thanks to Mike Adams. The Phillies need a lot to break their way if they want to get back to the postseason and health is the biggest factor.

4) New York Mets (70-92): The Mets were competitors in the first half of 2012, but they went free falling in the later half of 2012. They have traded CY Award winner R.A. Dickey, not to mention Johan Santana may not pitch this season or ever again, and the pitching staff is weaker because of it. However, they do have some young pitchers who have great potential in Jon Niese, Dillion Gee, Matt Harvey and others. The bullpen was one of if not the worst in 2012 and probably won't be much better in 2013. The offense is nothing to brag about, other than David Wright and potential someone like Ike Davis, but Travis D'Arnaud could make an impact at some point in 2013. Despite all this, I believe the Mets will outperform expectations.

5) Miami Marlins (60-102): Well, the Marlins forayed into the free agent market in 2012, picking up Jose Reyes, Mark Buherle and others, and were picked to go to the World Series. However, they failed miserably and by the end of 2012, all of their free agent signings were gone, along with others like Josh Johnson and Hanley Ramirez. The Marlins recieved plenty of minor league talent in their dealings, but they failed to acquire any prospect(s) that knowingly have future major potential. They got a bunch of salary relief, but that was about it. The offense does not look good outside of Giancarlo Stanton. Ditto, the pitching rotation outside of Ricky Nolasco and the bullpen outside of Steve Cishek. The Marlins most likely won't win this season or anywhere in the near future.


Overview of Division: The Nationals will probably win this division, but don't count the Braves or Phillies out, especially if things break right for those teams.









Saturday, February 23, 2013

Top Closers Right Now: Consistency/Longevity Counts

   This will be my last post for awhile concerning pitchers, and while I enjoy analyzing pitching statistics I am ready to cover hitting statistics. But before that happens, here are the top five closers in the Majors. In my opinion the most important thing for a closer to do is to save games; that is the most important stat for a closer, but other statistics cannot be ignored.

5) Joel Hanrahan: Joel Hanrahan is probably one of the most underrated closers in Baseball. Hanrahan was recently traded from the Pittsburgh Pirates to the Boston Red Sox, and while most people fret about pitchers moving from the National League to the American League, Hanrahan should be just fine. Hanrahan has posted a career line of 96 saves, an average 9.9 SO/9, 397.1 IP and an average SO/BB of 2.27 over parts of six MLB seasons. However, Hanrahan has only been a full time closer the last two years as all but twenty of his saves have been recorded in the past two years (76/96: 2011:40 and 2012:36, respectively). Hanrahan's average of 9.9 SO/9 is a respectable number since 9 SO/9 is considered good for a reliever, but Hanrahan is not a dominant reliever by any stretch of the imagination. To my knowledge there is not a set number which makes a pitchers SO/BB ratio be defined as good, but obviously the higher that number the better. Hanrahan's career SO/BB is listed above, but in 2011 he posted a 3.81 SO/BB to go along with an ERA of 1.83. However in 2012, his SO/BB dropped to 1.86 and his ERA ballooned to 2.72. The numbers are still respectable and Hanrahan is a nice pickup for Boston, but at the age of 31, the closer may not be as dominant going forward as he has in years past.

4) Rafael Soriano: Rafael Soriano recently signed a lucrative contract with the Washington Nationals, and he will open the 2013 season as their closer. Soriano filled in admirably for Mariano Rivera in 2012, after Rivera tore his ACL while shagging fly balls in the outfield during batting practice one day before a game. In Rivera's absence, Soriano saved 42 games, pitching 67.2 innings, posted an ERA of 2.26, a SO/9 of 9.2, and a SO/BB of 2.88. Over his career he has saved 132 games, pitched 502 innings, posted an ERA of 2.78, a SO/9 of 9.4, and a SO/BB of 3.29. Keep in mind that Soriano did not become a full time closer until 2009, when he was pitching for the Atlanta Braves in his final season there. That season he amassed 27 saves, a 2.97 ERA, and a 1.78 SO/BB to go along with a SO/9 of 12.1. In 2010 he moved on to Tampa Bay where he pitched for the Rays(The Rays always seem to find a closer who works well for them). In 2012 he saved 45 games for the Rays, had an ERA of 1.73, a SO/9 of 8.2 and a SO/BB of 4.07. As a manager, I would gladly take these statistics from a closer or any reliever for that matter, and while Soriano filled in admirably in Rivera's absence, there are better options. Such as the closer Soriano was filling in for. Speaking of Mariano Rivera...

3) Mariano Rivera: Mariano Rivera, also known as Mo went down with an ACL injury last season as mentioned above. The only reason that I have Mo ranked third and not second is due to the ACL injury. He was not going to top this list anyhow, as he is not the best closer in the game right now, but he is the greatest closer of all time. Due to the injury, Rivera's pitching line from 2012 does not resemble what it would have without the injury. After all, this is a guy who has amassed as many as 53 saves in a season, and he has saved 30 or more games fourteen times in his 18 year career. Here is his stat line from 2012: 5 saves, 8.1 IP, 2.16 ERA, SO/9 of 8.6, and a SO/BB of 4.00. Mo was off to a good start in 2012 before the injury derailed his season, but still at the age of 43 (18 seasons in the Majors), Mo is no doubt bound to have another great season to add to his Hall of Fame Career. Here are the number's for Mo's career: 608 saves (most ever), 1,219.2 IP, 2.21 ERA, SO/9 of 8.3, and a SO/BB of 4.04. Everything happens for a reason, and I was saddened to see Mo succumb to injury last season, but had he not it may have been his last season. Rivera will reveal his plans about his future before opening day, but I look forward to watching the Future Hall of Famer rack up a lot of saves for the New York Yankees in 2013.

2) Jonathan Papelbon: Jonathan Papelbon, also known as Pap would have placed third on my list had Rivera not been injured. However Rivera was in fact injured and Papelbon proved in 2012 why he is one of the games elite closers. Now, I was watching MLB Network awhile back, and "The Shredder" had Paps ranked as the game's eighth best closer or something like that. Well incase no one has noticed, this is not MLB Network and I don't have a shredder, and I understand that "The Shredder" has a formula which accounts for past success and projects future success. So how good was Paps in 2012, his first year in the National League with the Philadelphia Phillies? Paps recorded this pitching stat line: 38 saves, 70 IP, 2.44 ERA, SO/9 of 11.8, and a SO/BB of 5.11. That is a nice stat line for a closer, and while Paps has had better years in parts of eight MLB seasons, 2012 was a solid year where he finished 64 games (most in the NL). Over his career, Paps has put up the following numbers: 257 saves, 499.1 IP, 2.34 ERA, SO/9 of 10.8, and aSO/BB of 4.52. Plenty of people have told me that Paps is "Decent" for a closer. Decent does not describe Papelbon accurately, Elite does. Not many closers remain relavent for a long period of time due to being volatile, but Papelbon has remained relevant. Ever since becoming a full time closer in 2006, Papelbon has saved more than 30 games every season. If Papelbon is only "Decent" and is not currently one of the games best closers, then I am missing something.

1) Craig Kimbrel: Being from around the Atlanta area, I can understand why Papelbon may not seem that great, because most people around here are obviously Atlanta Braves fans. Fans who say they have the best closer in all of baseball, and I agree with them, but biased attitudes from any fan base cause good players like Papelbon and Soriano to get overlooked(There will be a post on this in the future). For now though, let's focus on Kimbrel who finished 2012 with a very impressive stat line. A line that included: 42 saves, 62.2 IP, 1.01 ERA, SO/9 16.7, and a SO/BB of 8.29. Let's face it, for the second year in a row, Kimbrel dominated his competition. For his Major League Career(parts of three seasons), Kimbrel has been overpowering to say the least. For his career, the 24 year old right hander has accumulated 89 saves, 160.1 IP, 1.46 ERA, a SO/9 of 15.9, and an 8.29 SO/BB. I would elaborate more on Kimbrel, but honestly it is difficult to do so. His stats do all of the talking. He has a wipeout slider and a fastball that can reach triple digits, and he seems to have a bright future ahead of him. At 24 years of age, Kimbrel has a long way to go and must remain cosistent, but perhaps by the time his career is over, he will be known as the greatest closer of all time surpassing Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera.

Strong Consideration:

1) Jim Johnson: Great 2012, but just finding his niche.

2) Adroldis Chapman: Insane strikeout numbers and other statistics but expected to be a starter moving forward.

3) Lance Lynn: Has had two good years and was a World Series Champion in 2011.

4) Fernando Rodney: Lowest ERA for a reliever in the live ball era, but he is going to be 35 soon and hasn't been consistent over the course his career.

Other Choices:
Sergio Romo, Carlos Marmol, Wilton Lopez, etc.

   This post concludes my blogging on pitchers for awhile, and while I have enjoyed the pitching analyzation, I am ready to move on to position players. I will be analyzing each position players defense and hitting abilities. My next blog post will be on the games best catchers right now.