It has been over a month since my last update, and while I stated that my next post would be on catchers, I have decided to post my predictions for each division instead. I will post my entry on catchers when I have more time for analyzation. However for now, here is how I see every division playing out (Note: I am not going into a lot of detail for my reasoning, and the win-loss record prediction is only considering the 162 game season, not considering if each team in the division can win the amount of games predicted because of how many times they play each other). I will list each division in descending order. I will post two divisions at a time, starting with the AL & NL East.
AL East: This is without a doubt the hardest division to predict on paper.
1) Tampa Bay Rays (94-68): The Rays are probably the best run organization in the Majors. The team has a talented pitching rotation which is led by the reigning AL CY Award winner, David Price and 2011 AL Rookie of the Year winner, Jeremy Hellickson. The bullpen situation seems to always work for them as Fernando Rodney posted a ridiculous 0.60 ERA last year after posting a career ERA in the mid 4.00. Offense is always a concern for this team, but they manage to get by and play tight ball games, especially if Evan Longoria stays healthy.
2) Toronto Blue Jays (92-70): This is the best team in the AL East on paper. The Blue Jays underwent a complete overhaul in the offseason, as they acquired Mark Buerhle, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Emilio Bonafacio, and others from the Miami Marlins. They also netted the reigning NL CY Award winner R.A. Dickey and his battery mate Josh Thole from the Mets. Put these new pieces with the pieces the Jays already have like, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encanacion and others, and this is a very formidable ball team. However, the pitching rotation looks like a weakness. Aside from R.A. Dickey, there is not much depth to the rotation, I mean, former ace Rickey Romero is back in Single A making over $7 million. Aside from the rotation, the chemistry of this team may not mesh.
3) Boston Red Sox (88-74): The Red Sox have undergone a complete overhaul of there own. Over the past year, the organization has traded Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett and others. This team no longer contains many of the players fans came to admire in previous seasons, but they have reloaded with the likes of Ryan Dempster, Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli for the upcoming season. Those are some decent players, and they have all been to the post season within the last two years. However, health will be key for the Red Sox this season, as they will need players like Ellsbury and Pedria to stay healthy all year especially with David Ortiz sidelined to begin the season. Not only that, but they will need their starting rotation to dominate the way it has in Spring Training in order to have a shot at the playoffs, but this is a hungry organization that has not seen postseason baseball since 2009 so don't count them out.
4) Baltimore Orioles (85-77): The Orioles had a nice season last year, and while I believe they'll be a winning ball club in 2013 I don't believe they will be heading back to the postseason. Baltimore's rotation could use a boost, but Jason Hammel is solid and Chris Tillman is a promising young arm. The offense is going to need to produce, and things need to break the Orioles way much like it did last year if they want to make it back to the postseason. However, the young Manny Machado should give the Orioles a boost and they should have a lights out bullpen again this year. If the Orioles can duplicate their success from 2012, they can get back to the postseason.
5) New York Yankees (83-79): The Yankees have won the AL East the past three seasons, and I'm not doubting that they could do it again, but they have injury concerns surrounding Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson and Mark Texeria. That leaves Robinson Cano as the lone hitting star for the Yankees, at least for the first week or so. The rotation is solid however, and the bullpen features the greatest closer ever in Mariano Rivera, so they should be able to tread water, but they will need help from an unlikely source(s) such as, the recently acquired Vernon Wells. Even considering the information mentioned above, the Yankees know how to win and no one should be surprised if they capture their fourth consecutive AL East crown.
Overview of Division: No matter how this division shakes out at the end of 2013, no one should be surprised by the result.
NL East: I believe this division will stack up in the same order as it did in 2012.
1) Washington Nationals (100-62): The Nationals are full of young talent, and they have veteran presence. The team was more injury prone than people realize in 2012, and they still led baseball in wins at 98. The Nationals may have the best rotation in baseball top to bottom with: Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman, Ross Detwiler and Dan Harren. The offense is loaded with talent and features phenom Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Laroach, Denard Span and others. The bullpen is solid too. The pen features Tyler Clippard, Drew Storen, Rafeal Soriano and others. Overall, the Nationals are probably the best team as a whole, at least on paper.
2) Atlanta Braves (92-60): The Braves have finished second in the division for the last handful of seasons. They are a consistent team that knows how to win baseball games. Their rotation may not quite stack up with the Nationals, or even the Phillies for that matter, but they have a rotation that has some upside and veteran presence. The rotation includes Tim Hudson, Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, Paul Maholm and Julio Teheran. Not to mention Brandon Beachy who should return sometime in June or July. The rotation may not contain the household names like the Phillies and Nationals, but it is still a solid rotation. The Braves also added power this season, acquiring Justin Upton from the Arizona Diamondbacks and B.J. Upton through free agency. However they lost Martin Prado in the deal, and while this lineup is full of power, it also looks strikeout prone. The Atlanta bullpen is the best in the Majors, as it features Jordan Walden, Johnny Venters, Eric O'Flaherrety, and dominant closer Craig Kimbrel.
3) Philadelphia Phillies (86-76): The Phillies had a down season in 2012. They suffered from injuries, just like every MLB team, but they unlike others were unable to overcome that obstacle. All-Stars Ryan Howard and Chase Utley were out until about mid-season, and former staff ace Roy Halladay suffered from back and shoulder injuries and looks to be declining. Cliff Lee had a better year than most people realize and was bad luck prone. Still, the Phillies are full of players who know how to win, and if the starting staff holds up, it may still be one of the best in baseball. However, Halladay will need to bounce back, Cole Hamels needs a repeat or better of 2012, Lee needs better luck, Kyle Kendrick needs to be successful like he was the last half of 2012 and John Lanan has to be an innings eater that keeps the team in ball games. The offense needs to stay healthy, and the team needs to play solid defense. Carlos Ruiz will be missing the first 25 games due to suspension, but surely the team will be fine until he returns. The bullpen should be better in large part thanks to Mike Adams. The Phillies need a lot to break their way if they want to get back to the postseason and health is the biggest factor.
4) New York Mets (70-92): The Mets were competitors in the first half of 2012, but they went free falling in the later half of 2012. They have traded CY Award winner R.A. Dickey, not to mention Johan Santana may not pitch this season or ever again, and the pitching staff is weaker because of it. However, they do have some young pitchers who have great potential in Jon Niese, Dillion Gee, Matt Harvey and others. The bullpen was one of if not the worst in 2012 and probably won't be much better in 2013. The offense is nothing to brag about, other than David Wright and potential someone like Ike Davis, but Travis D'Arnaud could make an impact at some point in 2013. Despite all this, I believe the Mets will outperform expectations.
5) Miami Marlins (60-102): Well, the Marlins forayed into the free agent market in 2012, picking up Jose Reyes, Mark Buherle and others, and were picked to go to the World Series. However, they failed miserably and by the end of 2012, all of their free agent signings were gone, along with others like Josh Johnson and Hanley Ramirez. The Marlins recieved plenty of minor league talent in their dealings, but they failed to acquire any prospect(s) that knowingly have future major potential. They got a bunch of salary relief, but that was about it. The offense does not look good outside of Giancarlo Stanton. Ditto, the pitching rotation outside of Ricky Nolasco and the bullpen outside of Steve Cishek. The Marlins most likely won't win this season or anywhere in the near future.
Overview of Division: The Nationals will probably win this division, but don't count the Braves or Phillies out, especially if things break right for those teams.
Saturday, March 30, 2013
Saturday, February 23, 2013
Top Closers Right Now: Consistency/Longevity Counts
This will be my last post for awhile concerning pitchers, and while I enjoy analyzing pitching statistics I am ready to cover hitting statistics. But before that happens, here are the top five closers in the Majors. In my opinion the most important thing for a closer to do is to save games; that is the most important stat for a closer, but other statistics cannot be ignored.
5) Joel Hanrahan: Joel Hanrahan is probably one of the most underrated closers in Baseball. Hanrahan was recently traded from the Pittsburgh Pirates to the Boston Red Sox, and while most people fret about pitchers moving from the National League to the American League, Hanrahan should be just fine. Hanrahan has posted a career line of 96 saves, an average 9.9 SO/9, 397.1 IP and an average SO/BB of 2.27 over parts of six MLB seasons. However, Hanrahan has only been a full time closer the last two years as all but twenty of his saves have been recorded in the past two years (76/96: 2011:40 and 2012:36, respectively). Hanrahan's average of 9.9 SO/9 is a respectable number since 9 SO/9 is considered good for a reliever, but Hanrahan is not a dominant reliever by any stretch of the imagination. To my knowledge there is not a set number which makes a pitchers SO/BB ratio be defined as good, but obviously the higher that number the better. Hanrahan's career SO/BB is listed above, but in 2011 he posted a 3.81 SO/BB to go along with an ERA of 1.83. However in 2012, his SO/BB dropped to 1.86 and his ERA ballooned to 2.72. The numbers are still respectable and Hanrahan is a nice pickup for Boston, but at the age of 31, the closer may not be as dominant going forward as he has in years past.
4) Rafael Soriano: Rafael Soriano recently signed a lucrative contract with the Washington Nationals, and he will open the 2013 season as their closer. Soriano filled in admirably for Mariano Rivera in 2012, after Rivera tore his ACL while shagging fly balls in the outfield during batting practice one day before a game. In Rivera's absence, Soriano saved 42 games, pitching 67.2 innings, posted an ERA of 2.26, a SO/9 of 9.2, and a SO/BB of 2.88. Over his career he has saved 132 games, pitched 502 innings, posted an ERA of 2.78, a SO/9 of 9.4, and a SO/BB of 3.29. Keep in mind that Soriano did not become a full time closer until 2009, when he was pitching for the Atlanta Braves in his final season there. That season he amassed 27 saves, a 2.97 ERA, and a 1.78 SO/BB to go along with a SO/9 of 12.1. In 2010 he moved on to Tampa Bay where he pitched for the Rays(The Rays always seem to find a closer who works well for them). In 2012 he saved 45 games for the Rays, had an ERA of 1.73, a SO/9 of 8.2 and a SO/BB of 4.07. As a manager, I would gladly take these statistics from a closer or any reliever for that matter, and while Soriano filled in admirably in Rivera's absence, there are better options. Such as the closer Soriano was filling in for. Speaking of Mariano Rivera...
3) Mariano Rivera: Mariano Rivera, also known as Mo went down with an ACL injury last season as mentioned above. The only reason that I have Mo ranked third and not second is due to the ACL injury. He was not going to top this list anyhow, as he is not the best closer in the game right now, but he is the greatest closer of all time. Due to the injury, Rivera's pitching line from 2012 does not resemble what it would have without the injury. After all, this is a guy who has amassed as many as 53 saves in a season, and he has saved 30 or more games fourteen times in his 18 year career. Here is his stat line from 2012: 5 saves, 8.1 IP, 2.16 ERA, SO/9 of 8.6, and a SO/BB of 4.00. Mo was off to a good start in 2012 before the injury derailed his season, but still at the age of 43 (18 seasons in the Majors), Mo is no doubt bound to have another great season to add to his Hall of Fame Career. Here are the number's for Mo's career: 608 saves (most ever), 1,219.2 IP, 2.21 ERA, SO/9 of 8.3, and a SO/BB of 4.04. Everything happens for a reason, and I was saddened to see Mo succumb to injury last season, but had he not it may have been his last season. Rivera will reveal his plans about his future before opening day, but I look forward to watching the Future Hall of Famer rack up a lot of saves for the New York Yankees in 2013.
2) Jonathan Papelbon: Jonathan Papelbon, also known as Pap would have placed third on my list had Rivera not been injured. However Rivera was in fact injured and Papelbon proved in 2012 why he is one of the games elite closers. Now, I was watching MLB Network awhile back, and "The Shredder" had Paps ranked as the game's eighth best closer or something like that. Well incase no one has noticed, this is not MLB Network and I don't have a shredder, and I understand that "The Shredder" has a formula which accounts for past success and projects future success. So how good was Paps in 2012, his first year in the National League with the Philadelphia Phillies? Paps recorded this pitching stat line: 38 saves, 70 IP, 2.44 ERA, SO/9 of 11.8, and a SO/BB of 5.11. That is a nice stat line for a closer, and while Paps has had better years in parts of eight MLB seasons, 2012 was a solid year where he finished 64 games (most in the NL). Over his career, Paps has put up the following numbers: 257 saves, 499.1 IP, 2.34 ERA, SO/9 of 10.8, and aSO/BB of 4.52. Plenty of people have told me that Paps is "Decent" for a closer. Decent does not describe Papelbon accurately, Elite does. Not many closers remain relavent for a long period of time due to being volatile, but Papelbon has remained relevant. Ever since becoming a full time closer in 2006, Papelbon has saved more than 30 games every season. If Papelbon is only "Decent" and is not currently one of the games best closers, then I am missing something.
1) Craig Kimbrel: Being from around the Atlanta area, I can understand why Papelbon may not seem that great, because most people around here are obviously Atlanta Braves fans. Fans who say they have the best closer in all of baseball, and I agree with them, but biased attitudes from any fan base cause good players like Papelbon and Soriano to get overlooked(There will be a post on this in the future). For now though, let's focus on Kimbrel who finished 2012 with a very impressive stat line. A line that included: 42 saves, 62.2 IP, 1.01 ERA, SO/9 16.7, and a SO/BB of 8.29. Let's face it, for the second year in a row, Kimbrel dominated his competition. For his Major League Career(parts of three seasons), Kimbrel has been overpowering to say the least. For his career, the 24 year old right hander has accumulated 89 saves, 160.1 IP, 1.46 ERA, a SO/9 of 15.9, and an 8.29 SO/BB. I would elaborate more on Kimbrel, but honestly it is difficult to do so. His stats do all of the talking. He has a wipeout slider and a fastball that can reach triple digits, and he seems to have a bright future ahead of him. At 24 years of age, Kimbrel has a long way to go and must remain cosistent, but perhaps by the time his career is over, he will be known as the greatest closer of all time surpassing Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera.
Strong Consideration:
1) Jim Johnson: Great 2012, but just finding his niche.
2) Adroldis Chapman: Insane strikeout numbers and other statistics but expected to be a starter moving forward.
3) Lance Lynn: Has had two good years and was a World Series Champion in 2011.
4) Fernando Rodney: Lowest ERA for a reliever in the live ball era, but he is going to be 35 soon and hasn't been consistent over the course his career.
Other Choices:
Sergio Romo, Carlos Marmol, Wilton Lopez, etc.
This post concludes my blogging on pitchers for awhile, and while I have enjoyed the pitching analyzation, I am ready to move on to position players. I will be analyzing each position players defense and hitting abilities. My next blog post will be on the games best catchers right now.
5) Joel Hanrahan: Joel Hanrahan is probably one of the most underrated closers in Baseball. Hanrahan was recently traded from the Pittsburgh Pirates to the Boston Red Sox, and while most people fret about pitchers moving from the National League to the American League, Hanrahan should be just fine. Hanrahan has posted a career line of 96 saves, an average 9.9 SO/9, 397.1 IP and an average SO/BB of 2.27 over parts of six MLB seasons. However, Hanrahan has only been a full time closer the last two years as all but twenty of his saves have been recorded in the past two years (76/96: 2011:40 and 2012:36, respectively). Hanrahan's average of 9.9 SO/9 is a respectable number since 9 SO/9 is considered good for a reliever, but Hanrahan is not a dominant reliever by any stretch of the imagination. To my knowledge there is not a set number which makes a pitchers SO/BB ratio be defined as good, but obviously the higher that number the better. Hanrahan's career SO/BB is listed above, but in 2011 he posted a 3.81 SO/BB to go along with an ERA of 1.83. However in 2012, his SO/BB dropped to 1.86 and his ERA ballooned to 2.72. The numbers are still respectable and Hanrahan is a nice pickup for Boston, but at the age of 31, the closer may not be as dominant going forward as he has in years past.
4) Rafael Soriano: Rafael Soriano recently signed a lucrative contract with the Washington Nationals, and he will open the 2013 season as their closer. Soriano filled in admirably for Mariano Rivera in 2012, after Rivera tore his ACL while shagging fly balls in the outfield during batting practice one day before a game. In Rivera's absence, Soriano saved 42 games, pitching 67.2 innings, posted an ERA of 2.26, a SO/9 of 9.2, and a SO/BB of 2.88. Over his career he has saved 132 games, pitched 502 innings, posted an ERA of 2.78, a SO/9 of 9.4, and a SO/BB of 3.29. Keep in mind that Soriano did not become a full time closer until 2009, when he was pitching for the Atlanta Braves in his final season there. That season he amassed 27 saves, a 2.97 ERA, and a 1.78 SO/BB to go along with a SO/9 of 12.1. In 2010 he moved on to Tampa Bay where he pitched for the Rays(The Rays always seem to find a closer who works well for them). In 2012 he saved 45 games for the Rays, had an ERA of 1.73, a SO/9 of 8.2 and a SO/BB of 4.07. As a manager, I would gladly take these statistics from a closer or any reliever for that matter, and while Soriano filled in admirably in Rivera's absence, there are better options. Such as the closer Soriano was filling in for. Speaking of Mariano Rivera...
3) Mariano Rivera: Mariano Rivera, also known as Mo went down with an ACL injury last season as mentioned above. The only reason that I have Mo ranked third and not second is due to the ACL injury. He was not going to top this list anyhow, as he is not the best closer in the game right now, but he is the greatest closer of all time. Due to the injury, Rivera's pitching line from 2012 does not resemble what it would have without the injury. After all, this is a guy who has amassed as many as 53 saves in a season, and he has saved 30 or more games fourteen times in his 18 year career. Here is his stat line from 2012: 5 saves, 8.1 IP, 2.16 ERA, SO/9 of 8.6, and a SO/BB of 4.00. Mo was off to a good start in 2012 before the injury derailed his season, but still at the age of 43 (18 seasons in the Majors), Mo is no doubt bound to have another great season to add to his Hall of Fame Career. Here are the number's for Mo's career: 608 saves (most ever), 1,219.2 IP, 2.21 ERA, SO/9 of 8.3, and a SO/BB of 4.04. Everything happens for a reason, and I was saddened to see Mo succumb to injury last season, but had he not it may have been his last season. Rivera will reveal his plans about his future before opening day, but I look forward to watching the Future Hall of Famer rack up a lot of saves for the New York Yankees in 2013.
2) Jonathan Papelbon: Jonathan Papelbon, also known as Pap would have placed third on my list had Rivera not been injured. However Rivera was in fact injured and Papelbon proved in 2012 why he is one of the games elite closers. Now, I was watching MLB Network awhile back, and "The Shredder" had Paps ranked as the game's eighth best closer or something like that. Well incase no one has noticed, this is not MLB Network and I don't have a shredder, and I understand that "The Shredder" has a formula which accounts for past success and projects future success. So how good was Paps in 2012, his first year in the National League with the Philadelphia Phillies? Paps recorded this pitching stat line: 38 saves, 70 IP, 2.44 ERA, SO/9 of 11.8, and a SO/BB of 5.11. That is a nice stat line for a closer, and while Paps has had better years in parts of eight MLB seasons, 2012 was a solid year where he finished 64 games (most in the NL). Over his career, Paps has put up the following numbers: 257 saves, 499.1 IP, 2.34 ERA, SO/9 of 10.8, and aSO/BB of 4.52. Plenty of people have told me that Paps is "Decent" for a closer. Decent does not describe Papelbon accurately, Elite does. Not many closers remain relavent for a long period of time due to being volatile, but Papelbon has remained relevant. Ever since becoming a full time closer in 2006, Papelbon has saved more than 30 games every season. If Papelbon is only "Decent" and is not currently one of the games best closers, then I am missing something.
1) Craig Kimbrel: Being from around the Atlanta area, I can understand why Papelbon may not seem that great, because most people around here are obviously Atlanta Braves fans. Fans who say they have the best closer in all of baseball, and I agree with them, but biased attitudes from any fan base cause good players like Papelbon and Soriano to get overlooked(There will be a post on this in the future). For now though, let's focus on Kimbrel who finished 2012 with a very impressive stat line. A line that included: 42 saves, 62.2 IP, 1.01 ERA, SO/9 16.7, and a SO/BB of 8.29. Let's face it, for the second year in a row, Kimbrel dominated his competition. For his Major League Career(parts of three seasons), Kimbrel has been overpowering to say the least. For his career, the 24 year old right hander has accumulated 89 saves, 160.1 IP, 1.46 ERA, a SO/9 of 15.9, and an 8.29 SO/BB. I would elaborate more on Kimbrel, but honestly it is difficult to do so. His stats do all of the talking. He has a wipeout slider and a fastball that can reach triple digits, and he seems to have a bright future ahead of him. At 24 years of age, Kimbrel has a long way to go and must remain cosistent, but perhaps by the time his career is over, he will be known as the greatest closer of all time surpassing Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera.
Strong Consideration:
1) Jim Johnson: Great 2012, but just finding his niche.
2) Adroldis Chapman: Insane strikeout numbers and other statistics but expected to be a starter moving forward.
3) Lance Lynn: Has had two good years and was a World Series Champion in 2011.
4) Fernando Rodney: Lowest ERA for a reliever in the live ball era, but he is going to be 35 soon and hasn't been consistent over the course his career.
Other Choices:
Sergio Romo, Carlos Marmol, Wilton Lopez, etc.
This post concludes my blogging on pitchers for awhile, and while I have enjoyed the pitching analyzation, I am ready to move on to position players. I will be analyzing each position players defense and hitting abilities. My next blog post will be on the games best catchers right now.
Monday, February 11, 2013
Top Mlb Relievers: Non-Closers Right Now
I figured I would break relievers into two separate categories since saves are vital for closers and other relievers are relied on for other various reasons. So, it time to commence the top five countdown.
5) Koji Uehara: Koji Uehara has been one of the most consistent relievers in MLB since making his debut with the Orioels. Since then, Uehara has gone on to pitch for the Texas Rangers, and he will pitch this upcoming season with the Boston Red Sox. Uehara has spent only four years in the Majors, but in those four seasons he has posted an ERA of 2.89, pitched 211.2 innings, saved 14 games, posted a 9.8 SO/9 (Strikeouts for nine innings) and posted a K/BB (Strikeout to walk ratio) of 7.97. Both of the stats mentioned above are great measurements for a reliever since it is vital for relievers to post a lot of strikeouts while walking few, and a good SO/9 is at least nine. Uehara has excelled pretty well in both categories. Uehara has also pitched at least 44 3/4 of his seasons, and pitched to an ERA of under 3.00 as well. However, Uehara does not come close to comparing to the remaining four pitchers on this list.
4) Jonny Venters: Venters has been a dominant reliever for the Atlanta Braves since 2010, being nothing short of outstanding. Over those three seasons, Venters has compiled a 2.23 ERA, pitched 229 innings, has recorded 6 saves. What's more is that out of those three years, Venters has pitched to an ERA below 2.00 and pitched over 80 innings(2010: 1.95 ERA, 83 IP; 2011: 1.84 ERA, 88 IP). The flame throwing lefty took a step back in 2012, posting a 3.22 ERA, and while he failed to to pitch at least 80 innings last season, he still pitched 63 innings which is still impressive, especially considering Venters was plagued by injury. While the next hurler on this list also took a step back most likely due to injury, their is a good reason that he surpasses Venters.
3) Mike Adams: Mike Adams has been one of the best setup men in baseball over the last handful of seasons. Like Venters, Adams took a step backwards in 2012 as the right handed hurler suffered from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. Adams posted decent numbers, but numbers which were inconsistent with his career, specifically over the last few seasons. In 2012, Adams posted a 3.27 ERA in 52 innings, while managing to pick up one save. These numbers are decent for a reliever, but they are a far cry from Adams career statistics. Over his career, Adams has accumulated a 2.28 ERA, pitched 363 innings, and recorded 4 saves. Adams has absolutely dominated opposing hitters over the course of his career, and since 2009 he has been phenomenal, excluding 2012. Over those other three seasons, Adams has pitched for the San Diego Padres and the Texas Rangers. During those seasons he has pitched in at least 37 innings and posted an ERA under 2.00; 2009-2011 in order: (37 IP, 0.73 ERA; 66 IP, 1.75 ERA; 73 IP, 1.47 ERA). Adams ranks ahead of Venters because he has a longer track record, and he does not have an arsenal as potentially dangerous as Venters does. However, one of Venters Bullpen mates has been nearly un-hittable since he began pitching for the Atlanta Braves.
2) Eric O'Flaherty: Eric O'Flaherty has been unbelievable since he began pitching for the Atlanta Braves in 2009. Honestly, I thought O'Flaherty came up through the Braves farm system, that is incorrect however, he was actually claimed off waivers from the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners seemingly had a good reason for placing O'Flaherty on waivers, seeing as he posted a 20.25 ERA in 6.2 innings (Yikes), but the Mariners have likely lamented the decision since. For his career, O'Flaherty has posted an ERA of 2.87, pitched 301.1 innings, a SO/9 of 7.0, and a SO/BB of 2.21, but it is the 27 year olds numbers since getting out of Seattle that are so impressive. While in Seattle, O'Flaherty never posted an ERA below 4.00, his SO/9 never reached above 6.2, his SO/BB never even reached 2.00 (1.80 being the height) and he only pitched more than 11 innings once. On the other hand since being in Atlanta O'Flaherty has never posted an ERA over 3.04, his SO/9 has been a 6.2 or higher, his SO/BB has been a 2.00 or higher, and he has pitched 44 innings at least. Moreover O'Flaherty has posted an ERA under 2.00 the last two seasons (2011: 0.98 & 2012: 1.73). The lefty will be a free agent next offseason and is due for a big payday, but not as big of a payday as the number one pitcher on this list will potentially receive.
1) Sergio Romo: Sergio Romo emerged as the San Fransisco Giants closer (at least part time) this past season. He saved 14 games for the Giants in 2012 and recorded 3 saves in the World Series as well, which helped them eventually win the title. Romo was not a full time closer this past season, nor has he ever been and that is why he appears on this list. Romo has been underrated throughout the course of his career and was probably unknown for the most part until this past season. But make no mistake about it, Romo has been one of the most dominant relievers over the past five seasons. He has posted an ERA of 2.20, pitched 233.1 innings, and racked up 17 saves (14 of which came in 2012), he has compiled a SO/9 of 10.7, and a SO/BB of 5.77. Additionally, out of his five major league seasons, Romo has posted an ERA above 2.18 once (a 3.97 ERA in 2009). Aside from that one atypical year, Romo has posted the following ERA statistics: 2.12 (2008), 2.18 (2010), 1.50 (2011) and a 1.79 in 2012. He has also pitched at least 34 innings in his five seasons at the MLB level. The future looks bright for the 29 year old reliever, and he will most likely be the Giants full time closer in 2013.
Five Additional Considerations (No Particular Order):
1) Brad Ziegler: Ziegler is personally one of my favorite relievers for the simple fact that I like his sidearm/submarine delivery, and unfortunately he is really underrated. Aside from the delivery though, Ziegler has been a good reliever for the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Oakland Athletics over five seasons. Posting a 2.44 career ERA and pitching more than 58 innings each season.
2) Drew Storen: Storen is a young reliever for the Washington Nationals at 24 years of age, but he has been a key contributor out of their pen the past three seasons posting an ERA under 3.00 and racking up over 50 saves.
3) Luke Gregerson: Gregerson has been an asset for the San Diego Padres pitching at least 55 innings each oh his four seasons (over 70 innings in three of those seasons), and he has poste a sub 3.00 ERA.
4) Wilton Lopez: Lopez was recently traded from the Houston Astros to the Colorado Rockies, but over the past three seasons he has posted an ERA under 3.00.
5) Ernesto Frieri: Frieri was traded from the San Diego Padres to the Los Angeles Angels in 2012, and while the hurler may have command issues at times, it's hard to argue with the results of a 2.32 ERA over parts of four MLB seasons.
Other Options:
Antonio Bastardo, Darren O'Day, David Robertson, Bobby Parnell, Pat Neshek, Steve Cishek,
Tom Wilhelmsen, etc.
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| Koji Uehara (5) |
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| Jonny Venters (4) |
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| Mike Adams (3) |
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| Sergio Romo (1) |
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| Eric O'Flaherty (2) |
5) Koji Uehara: Koji Uehara has been one of the most consistent relievers in MLB since making his debut with the Orioels. Since then, Uehara has gone on to pitch for the Texas Rangers, and he will pitch this upcoming season with the Boston Red Sox. Uehara has spent only four years in the Majors, but in those four seasons he has posted an ERA of 2.89, pitched 211.2 innings, saved 14 games, posted a 9.8 SO/9 (Strikeouts for nine innings) and posted a K/BB (Strikeout to walk ratio) of 7.97. Both of the stats mentioned above are great measurements for a reliever since it is vital for relievers to post a lot of strikeouts while walking few, and a good SO/9 is at least nine. Uehara has excelled pretty well in both categories. Uehara has also pitched at least 44 3/4 of his seasons, and pitched to an ERA of under 3.00 as well. However, Uehara does not come close to comparing to the remaining four pitchers on this list.
4) Jonny Venters: Venters has been a dominant reliever for the Atlanta Braves since 2010, being nothing short of outstanding. Over those three seasons, Venters has compiled a 2.23 ERA, pitched 229 innings, has recorded 6 saves. What's more is that out of those three years, Venters has pitched to an ERA below 2.00 and pitched over 80 innings(2010: 1.95 ERA, 83 IP; 2011: 1.84 ERA, 88 IP). The flame throwing lefty took a step back in 2012, posting a 3.22 ERA, and while he failed to to pitch at least 80 innings last season, he still pitched 63 innings which is still impressive, especially considering Venters was plagued by injury. While the next hurler on this list also took a step back most likely due to injury, their is a good reason that he surpasses Venters.
3) Mike Adams: Mike Adams has been one of the best setup men in baseball over the last handful of seasons. Like Venters, Adams took a step backwards in 2012 as the right handed hurler suffered from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. Adams posted decent numbers, but numbers which were inconsistent with his career, specifically over the last few seasons. In 2012, Adams posted a 3.27 ERA in 52 innings, while managing to pick up one save. These numbers are decent for a reliever, but they are a far cry from Adams career statistics. Over his career, Adams has accumulated a 2.28 ERA, pitched 363 innings, and recorded 4 saves. Adams has absolutely dominated opposing hitters over the course of his career, and since 2009 he has been phenomenal, excluding 2012. Over those other three seasons, Adams has pitched for the San Diego Padres and the Texas Rangers. During those seasons he has pitched in at least 37 innings and posted an ERA under 2.00; 2009-2011 in order: (37 IP, 0.73 ERA; 66 IP, 1.75 ERA; 73 IP, 1.47 ERA). Adams ranks ahead of Venters because he has a longer track record, and he does not have an arsenal as potentially dangerous as Venters does. However, one of Venters Bullpen mates has been nearly un-hittable since he began pitching for the Atlanta Braves.
2) Eric O'Flaherty: Eric O'Flaherty has been unbelievable since he began pitching for the Atlanta Braves in 2009. Honestly, I thought O'Flaherty came up through the Braves farm system, that is incorrect however, he was actually claimed off waivers from the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners seemingly had a good reason for placing O'Flaherty on waivers, seeing as he posted a 20.25 ERA in 6.2 innings (Yikes), but the Mariners have likely lamented the decision since. For his career, O'Flaherty has posted an ERA of 2.87, pitched 301.1 innings, a SO/9 of 7.0, and a SO/BB of 2.21, but it is the 27 year olds numbers since getting out of Seattle that are so impressive. While in Seattle, O'Flaherty never posted an ERA below 4.00, his SO/9 never reached above 6.2, his SO/BB never even reached 2.00 (1.80 being the height) and he only pitched more than 11 innings once. On the other hand since being in Atlanta O'Flaherty has never posted an ERA over 3.04, his SO/9 has been a 6.2 or higher, his SO/BB has been a 2.00 or higher, and he has pitched 44 innings at least. Moreover O'Flaherty has posted an ERA under 2.00 the last two seasons (2011: 0.98 & 2012: 1.73). The lefty will be a free agent next offseason and is due for a big payday, but not as big of a payday as the number one pitcher on this list will potentially receive.
1) Sergio Romo: Sergio Romo emerged as the San Fransisco Giants closer (at least part time) this past season. He saved 14 games for the Giants in 2012 and recorded 3 saves in the World Series as well, which helped them eventually win the title. Romo was not a full time closer this past season, nor has he ever been and that is why he appears on this list. Romo has been underrated throughout the course of his career and was probably unknown for the most part until this past season. But make no mistake about it, Romo has been one of the most dominant relievers over the past five seasons. He has posted an ERA of 2.20, pitched 233.1 innings, and racked up 17 saves (14 of which came in 2012), he has compiled a SO/9 of 10.7, and a SO/BB of 5.77. Additionally, out of his five major league seasons, Romo has posted an ERA above 2.18 once (a 3.97 ERA in 2009). Aside from that one atypical year, Romo has posted the following ERA statistics: 2.12 (2008), 2.18 (2010), 1.50 (2011) and a 1.79 in 2012. He has also pitched at least 34 innings in his five seasons at the MLB level. The future looks bright for the 29 year old reliever, and he will most likely be the Giants full time closer in 2013.
Five Additional Considerations (No Particular Order):
1) Brad Ziegler: Ziegler is personally one of my favorite relievers for the simple fact that I like his sidearm/submarine delivery, and unfortunately he is really underrated. Aside from the delivery though, Ziegler has been a good reliever for the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Oakland Athletics over five seasons. Posting a 2.44 career ERA and pitching more than 58 innings each season.
2) Drew Storen: Storen is a young reliever for the Washington Nationals at 24 years of age, but he has been a key contributor out of their pen the past three seasons posting an ERA under 3.00 and racking up over 50 saves.
3) Luke Gregerson: Gregerson has been an asset for the San Diego Padres pitching at least 55 innings each oh his four seasons (over 70 innings in three of those seasons), and he has poste a sub 3.00 ERA.
4) Wilton Lopez: Lopez was recently traded from the Houston Astros to the Colorado Rockies, but over the past three seasons he has posted an ERA under 3.00.
5) Ernesto Frieri: Frieri was traded from the San Diego Padres to the Los Angeles Angels in 2012, and while the hurler may have command issues at times, it's hard to argue with the results of a 2.32 ERA over parts of four MLB seasons.
Other Options:
Antonio Bastardo, Darren O'Day, David Robertson, Bobby Parnell, Pat Neshek, Steve Cishek,
Tom Wilhelmsen, etc.
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
The Top Left Handed Starting Pitchers Right Now
I want to begin this blog post by saying that I made a mistake when listing the Top Five Right Handed Starting Pitchers... Felix Hernandez should have been included on my list instead of Johnny Cueto, but King Felix will now appear on one of my lists at a later date. I would also like to clarify that the five pitchers under included in the additional list are not the only other pitchers I considered when making the list. They were just the five that came to my mind and a brief reason as to why. There are other considerations, for example I also considered Jake Peavy, Tim Lincecum, Tim Hudson, etc. So without any further delay, here is my list of the Top Left Handed Starting Pitchers right now: (It may also be helpful to click on the links and check out each pitcher's career statistics; I tried to to include charts, but they would not format correctly).
5) Cliff Lee: Lee is 34 years old, but he is still one of the elite starting pitchers in the game. Everyone that I have talked to has told me that Cliff Lee had a disastrous season last year, and some people have went as far as saying his career is not far from over. I get it, a win-loss record of 6-9 for 2012 does not sound good, and while I agree that wins are important, they are not everything. If someone is going to say Lee was horrible this past year and is numbers have no chance of improving, I want more proof than just a win loss record. Take into account Lee pitched to a 3.16 ERA in 2013, 211 IP, and he struck out 207 batters while only walking 28. Sure, it looks like a far cry from the 17-8 record Lee posted in 2011, along with an ERA of 2.40, and he lead the National League in shout outs at 6. Over the past three seasons, Lee has been a dominant pitcher posting these numbers: an ERA of 2.91, a win-loss record of 33-26, 655 IP, and he has struck out 630 batters. The win-loss record is still not mind blowing, but Led pitched half of 2010 with the Seattle Mariners, and 2012 was just an unlucky year for Lee. Nonetheless, he deserves a spot on this list and the fifth spot seems right even though he could easily have placed as the number there or four slot on this list...
4) Gio Gonzalez: Gonzalez was not well known until this past season after the Washington Nationals acquired him from the Oakland Athletics and he had what most would term a "breakout season," but that is not the case. Gonzalez had the best season of his career to date, winning 21 games, and posting an ERA of 2.89., pitching 199 innings, and striking out207 batters. But Gonzalez has been consisten the last three years, posting an ERA of 3.08, a win loss record of 52-29, pitching 601 innings, and striking out 575 batters. Perhaps Gonzalez went relatively unnoticed due to "East Coast Bias," maybe because Gonzalez posts a high walk rate and doesn't always pitch 200+ innings pitched. Whatever the case though, he has been dominant and consistent enough to claim the top spot on this list.
3) Cole Hamels: Hamels is one of Lee's rotation mates. Hamels is an elite pitcher who seems to get better every year. Last season, Hamels posted an ERA of 3.05, a win-loss record of 17-6, he pitched 215.1 innings, and he struck out a career high 216 batters. Hamels has collected three All-Star game appearances, two of which have come back to back in the 2011 and 2012 season. Over the last three seasons, Hamels has pitched 640 innings, posted a win-loss record of 43-26, an ERA of 2.97, and struck out 621 batters. Along the way, Hamels has placed in the top ten of the NL CYA voting each of the last two seasons (5th and 8th respectively). The ace will be 29 years of age at the beginning of next season, and as his pitching game evolves, he make his way up my list, but he has a ways to go before he catches number 2 and number 1, so for now, Hamels slots nicely in the third spot ahead of Lee and Gonzalez. So who has placed ahead of Hamels?...
2) David Price: Price slots right ahead of Hamels on my list. Price had an excellent season pitching for the Tampa Bay Rays in the hitter heavy AL East. Price had a career year, he posted an ERA of 2.56(leading the AL), he tied for the lead in wins/winning percentage posting a win-loss record of 20-5. In short, Price's season was good enough to earn him the AL CYA. Moreover, Price has been a phenomenal pitcher over the last three seasons posting these stats: an ERA of 2.92, pitching 644 innings, a win-loss record of 52-24, and striking out 611 batters. Along the way, Price has appeared in the last three All-Star games, while also placing in the top three of the AL CYA voting two of the past three seasons (placing 2nd in 2010 and 1st I'm 2012 respectively). Price throws a fastball at 97+ MPH, and has some impressive braking pitches, and while the 27 year old may be around for awhile, even if he keeps his recent success at its current rate, he will probably still be stuck behind the guy at the top of this list...
1) Clayton Kershaw: Maybe Justin Verlander is considered the best pitcher in baseball, but I am inclined to disagree; I believe Kershaw is the best starting pitcher in all of baseball or at least he is going to be. While Verlander has been nothing short of spectacular over the last few years, Kershaw has be unbelievably dominant. Last season, Kershaw posted the following statistics while pitching for the Los Angeles Dodgers: An ERA of 2.53, a win-loss record of 14-9, 227 IP, and he also struck out 229 batters. This is not a fluke either, excluding his rookie year in 2008, Kershaw has posted an ERA under 3.00, pitched at least 171 innings (204 the last three seasons), and he has struck out no fewer than 185 batters (212 the last three seasons) each of the last four seasons. So how about the numbers he has compiled since 2009? Kershaw has accumulated an ERA of 2.63, a win-loss record of 56-32, pitched 836.1 innings, and struck out 874 batters. Despite these numbers, Kershaw did not appear in an All-Star game or recieve any votes in an award category until 2011. In 2011, Kershaw went to his first All-Star game, finished 12th in the NL MVP voting, and he won a Gold Glove and the NL CYA. In 2012, Kershaw finished 16th in the MVP voting, 2nd in the CYA voting, and appeared in his second consecuitive All-Star game. He lead the National League in ERA, WHIP, H/9 in 2011 and 2012, and in 2011 he also led the tied for the league lead in, wins and strikeouts. Kershaw has not even begun to enter his peak, which is typically considered to start around age 25. Kershaw has just completed his age 24 season. I look forward to watching Kershaw perform over the rest of his career, and I believe he will eventually be recognized as the best pitcher in Major League Baseball.
Five Additional Considerations (No particular order):
1) Wandy Rodriguez: Rodriguez has was the subject of many trade rumors for years. He was finally traded from the Houston Astros to the Pittsburgh Pirates this past season, and he has been a consistent pitcher, who has been constantly overlooked because he played for the Astros.
2) Andy Pettitte: Pettitte is an older pitcher, and he just came out of retirement this season in order to play with the New York Yankees. He pitched effectively, but he suffered from an injury mid-season unfortunately.
3) Jason Vargas: Vargas has pitched effectively for the Mariners the past three seasons and now finds himself with the Los Angeles Angels.
4) Ross Detwiler: Detwiler is a pitcher for the Washington Nationals, who was their fifth starter this past season even though he posted a mid 3.00 ERA. This is good production from a fifth starter.
5) Madison Bumgarner: Bumgarner is a pitcher for the San Franscisco Giants. He is a young pitcher who has helped the team win those two championships in the last two years.
Other Considerations: J.A. Happ, Derek Holland, Barry Zito, Mike Minor, etc.
5) Cliff Lee: Lee is 34 years old, but he is still one of the elite starting pitchers in the game. Everyone that I have talked to has told me that Cliff Lee had a disastrous season last year, and some people have went as far as saying his career is not far from over. I get it, a win-loss record of 6-9 for 2012 does not sound good, and while I agree that wins are important, they are not everything. If someone is going to say Lee was horrible this past year and is numbers have no chance of improving, I want more proof than just a win loss record. Take into account Lee pitched to a 3.16 ERA in 2013, 211 IP, and he struck out 207 batters while only walking 28. Sure, it looks like a far cry from the 17-8 record Lee posted in 2011, along with an ERA of 2.40, and he lead the National League in shout outs at 6. Over the past three seasons, Lee has been a dominant pitcher posting these numbers: an ERA of 2.91, a win-loss record of 33-26, 655 IP, and he has struck out 630 batters. The win-loss record is still not mind blowing, but Led pitched half of 2010 with the Seattle Mariners, and 2012 was just an unlucky year for Lee. Nonetheless, he deserves a spot on this list and the fifth spot seems right even though he could easily have placed as the number there or four slot on this list...
4) Gio Gonzalez: Gonzalez was not well known until this past season after the Washington Nationals acquired him from the Oakland Athletics and he had what most would term a "breakout season," but that is not the case. Gonzalez had the best season of his career to date, winning 21 games, and posting an ERA of 2.89., pitching 199 innings, and striking out207 batters. But Gonzalez has been consisten the last three years, posting an ERA of 3.08, a win loss record of 52-29, pitching 601 innings, and striking out 575 batters. Perhaps Gonzalez went relatively unnoticed due to "East Coast Bias," maybe because Gonzalez posts a high walk rate and doesn't always pitch 200+ innings pitched. Whatever the case though, he has been dominant and consistent enough to claim the top spot on this list.
3) Cole Hamels: Hamels is one of Lee's rotation mates. Hamels is an elite pitcher who seems to get better every year. Last season, Hamels posted an ERA of 3.05, a win-loss record of 17-6, he pitched 215.1 innings, and he struck out a career high 216 batters. Hamels has collected three All-Star game appearances, two of which have come back to back in the 2011 and 2012 season. Over the last three seasons, Hamels has pitched 640 innings, posted a win-loss record of 43-26, an ERA of 2.97, and struck out 621 batters. Along the way, Hamels has placed in the top ten of the NL CYA voting each of the last two seasons (5th and 8th respectively). The ace will be 29 years of age at the beginning of next season, and as his pitching game evolves, he make his way up my list, but he has a ways to go before he catches number 2 and number 1, so for now, Hamels slots nicely in the third spot ahead of Lee and Gonzalez. So who has placed ahead of Hamels?...
2) David Price: Price slots right ahead of Hamels on my list. Price had an excellent season pitching for the Tampa Bay Rays in the hitter heavy AL East. Price had a career year, he posted an ERA of 2.56(leading the AL), he tied for the lead in wins/winning percentage posting a win-loss record of 20-5. In short, Price's season was good enough to earn him the AL CYA. Moreover, Price has been a phenomenal pitcher over the last three seasons posting these stats: an ERA of 2.92, pitching 644 innings, a win-loss record of 52-24, and striking out 611 batters. Along the way, Price has appeared in the last three All-Star games, while also placing in the top three of the AL CYA voting two of the past three seasons (placing 2nd in 2010 and 1st I'm 2012 respectively). Price throws a fastball at 97+ MPH, and has some impressive braking pitches, and while the 27 year old may be around for awhile, even if he keeps his recent success at its current rate, he will probably still be stuck behind the guy at the top of this list...
1) Clayton Kershaw: Maybe Justin Verlander is considered the best pitcher in baseball, but I am inclined to disagree; I believe Kershaw is the best starting pitcher in all of baseball or at least he is going to be. While Verlander has been nothing short of spectacular over the last few years, Kershaw has be unbelievably dominant. Last season, Kershaw posted the following statistics while pitching for the Los Angeles Dodgers: An ERA of 2.53, a win-loss record of 14-9, 227 IP, and he also struck out 229 batters. This is not a fluke either, excluding his rookie year in 2008, Kershaw has posted an ERA under 3.00, pitched at least 171 innings (204 the last three seasons), and he has struck out no fewer than 185 batters (212 the last three seasons) each of the last four seasons. So how about the numbers he has compiled since 2009? Kershaw has accumulated an ERA of 2.63, a win-loss record of 56-32, pitched 836.1 innings, and struck out 874 batters. Despite these numbers, Kershaw did not appear in an All-Star game or recieve any votes in an award category until 2011. In 2011, Kershaw went to his first All-Star game, finished 12th in the NL MVP voting, and he won a Gold Glove and the NL CYA. In 2012, Kershaw finished 16th in the MVP voting, 2nd in the CYA voting, and appeared in his second consecuitive All-Star game. He lead the National League in ERA, WHIP, H/9 in 2011 and 2012, and in 2011 he also led the tied for the league lead in, wins and strikeouts. Kershaw has not even begun to enter his peak, which is typically considered to start around age 25. Kershaw has just completed his age 24 season. I look forward to watching Kershaw perform over the rest of his career, and I believe he will eventually be recognized as the best pitcher in Major League Baseball. Five Additional Considerations (No particular order):
1) Wandy Rodriguez: Rodriguez has was the subject of many trade rumors for years. He was finally traded from the Houston Astros to the Pittsburgh Pirates this past season, and he has been a consistent pitcher, who has been constantly overlooked because he played for the Astros.
2) Andy Pettitte: Pettitte is an older pitcher, and he just came out of retirement this season in order to play with the New York Yankees. He pitched effectively, but he suffered from an injury mid-season unfortunately.
3) Jason Vargas: Vargas has pitched effectively for the Mariners the past three seasons and now finds himself with the Los Angeles Angels.
4) Ross Detwiler: Detwiler is a pitcher for the Washington Nationals, who was their fifth starter this past season even though he posted a mid 3.00 ERA. This is good production from a fifth starter.
5) Madison Bumgarner: Bumgarner is a pitcher for the San Franscisco Giants. He is a young pitcher who has helped the team win those two championships in the last two years.
Other Considerations: J.A. Happ, Derek Holland, Barry Zito, Mike Minor, etc.
Monday, January 21, 2013
The Top Right Handed Starting Pitchers Right Now
This is going to be a very intriguing and debatable blog series I am going to start. I am going to rank the top five players at each position. However, the player must meet the following criteria:
1) Have played in the MLB for at least part of 3 seasons (There may be exceptions to this rule-case by case basis).
2) Play at the position listed the majority of the time.
3) Any other criteria I see fit.
So, without any further delay, here are my top five right handed starter pitchers and the reason(s) why each made my list.
5) Johnny Cueto: Cueto is possibly the most underrated pitcher in the Majors. Cueto has been in the Show over parts of five seasons, and is only 26 years old. He has a career win-loss record of 60-46, an ERA of 3.57, and he has struck out 702 batters in 904 IP. While his stats don't seem overly impressive, the stats do display the numbers of a work horse. Cueto made my list because he is entering the prime of his career, and has displayed phenomenal potential over the last two seasons. Over the past two seasons, Cueto has compiled an ERA of around 2.55, pitching 373 innings, a win-loss record of 28-14, and has struck out 274 batters. He finished fourth in the Cy Young Award voting this year, however he has never won a major award, or appeared in an All-Star game. Despite this, Cueto has posted excellent numbers for the Cincinatti Reds in Great American Ballpark, which is well renowned as a hitter's park. Cueto clearly flies below the radar, but nonetheless, he is very deserving of claiming the number
five spot on my list.
4) R.A. Dickey: Dickey like Cueto is a pitcher whose career stats are underwhelming for an Ace at first glance. Seeing as Dickey has posted the following career numbers: ERA: 3.96, 1,059.1 IP, a win-loss record of 61-56, and he has only struck out 739 batters. While Dickey is38, he managed to win the NL CYA, make his first All-Star game appearance, and he struck out a league leading 230 batters. Additionally, over the last three seasons, Dickey has compiled these statistics:
An ERA of 2.95, a win-loss record of 39-28, he has pitched 616.2 innings, and struck out 468 batters. He has posted these statistics while playing with a sub-par club, the New York Mets, and henceforth he surpasses Cueto and lands at number four on my list.
3) Matt Cain: Cain appeared in one of my recent blog entries, so not as much detail is needed concerning him. However, I will say this, Cain is one of the most consistent pitchers in the MLB. He has played a huge role in helping the San Francisco Giants secure two World Series Championships in three years, has thrown a perfect game, and made three All-Star appearance over parts of eight MLB seasons. And while Cain plays in AT&T Park, which is regarded as a pitcher's park, the guy just knows how to flat out pitch. He does not has a low to mid 90's fastball and off-speed pitches with good movement. He processes these career stats: an ERA of 3.27, a win-loss record of 85-78, 1,536.2 IP, and 1,278 batters struck out. Over the last three seasons, these are Cain's stats: an ERA of 2.94, a win-loss record of 41-27, 664.1 IP, an 548 batters struck out. Cain is a consistent force for the Giants, and it is that consistency that secures Cain at the third spot on my list.
2) Jered Weaver: Weaver has been an excellent pitcher over parts of seven MLB Seasons. He has posted these numbers thus far in his career: an ERA of 3.24, a win-loss record of 102-52, pitched 1,320.1 innings, and struck out 1,119 batters. He pitches in Angel Stadium, and this park is basically a neutral site for pitchers and hitters alike. Weaver is a similar pitcher to Cain, he throws a low to mid 90's fastball, but has quite a few breaking pitches with good movement. Perhaps though, the most impressive thing about Weaver is his past three seasons. He has compiled an ERA of 2.75, a win-loss record of 51-25, pitched 648.2 innings, and struck out 573 batters. Furthermore, Weaver has appeared in the All-Star game each of the last three seasons, and finished in the Top Five of the American League CYA voting (placing 5th, 2nd, and 3rd respectively). Additionally, Weaver threw a No-Hitter this year, lead the league in winning percentage, had the lowest hit per 9 innings against (H/9), and Walk Plus Innings Pitched (WHIP) at the age of 29. Weaver may not be as well known as the number one pitcher on my list, but It could be debated that Weaver is possibly better than the guy who tops this list...
5) Justin Verlander: The media and many fans have considered Verlander the best pitcher in baseball for the last few years, but this may be a misconception. Verlander has posted the following career numbers in parts of eight MLB Seasons. An ERA of 3.40, a win-loss record of 124-65, 1,553.2 IP, and 1,454 batters struck out. Unlike Weaver who is more of a finesse pitcher, Verlander is a power pitcher. Verlander can throw his fastball at 100+ MPH, and some dominating breaking pitches. Verlander has accumulated five All-Star appearances, including one in each of the last four seasons. So how does Verlander's past three years compare to Weaver's? The numbers look like this: an ERA of 2.80. A win-loss record of 59-22, 713.2 IP, and he has struck out 708 batters. Perhaps Verlander is considered the best pitcher in baseball right now because he has lead the league in IP, Strikeouts, and
ERA+ each of the last two seasons. Additionally, Verlander lead the league in wins, winning percentage, ERA, H/9 and WHIP in 2011 (Values indicated by the chart below). During the 2011 season he secured the AL CY and MVP Award. Also, Verlander has placed in the Top 3 of the CYA voting three of the last four seasons (finishing 1st, 2nd, and 3rd respectively). So while Weaver may be a better pitcher than Verlander in some respects, I am confident in my choice to place him as the current top right handed starting pitcher on my list.
1) Roy Halladay: The guy had an injury plagued 2012 as he dealt with a shoulder injury and posted an ERA of 4.49, but this is a guy who just posted a career low (in a full MLB season) ERA in 2011 of 2.35, won the NL CYA in 2010, and placed 2nd in 2011, but he will soon be 36 years old.
2) Chris Carpenter: He too was hampered by injury and only made three starts, but he helped lead the St. Louis Cardinals in 2011, and has been a work horse throughout his career. However, he will soon turn 38.
3) Adam Wainwright: One of Carpenter's teammates, he did not pitch at all in 2011, and he has a subpar 2012, but he may regain form, as he is only 31 years old.
4) Kris Medlen: The 26 year old is entering the prime of his career, and he was the Atlanta Braves "Ace in the hole," posting a 1.57 ERA, and pitching 138 innings. However, he missed my list because he did not pitch the whole season at the MLB level, but keep an eye on this guy in the 2013 season.
5) James Shields: There may be better candidates worth mentioning, but "Big Game James" comes to mind because he is an innings eater, a competitor, and he is just a year removed from posting a 2.82 ERA, is onl, and finishing third in the AL CYA voting. Additionally, he just recently turned 31 years old.
1) Have played in the MLB for at least part of 3 seasons (There may be exceptions to this rule-case by case basis).
2) Play at the position listed the majority of the time.
3) Any other criteria I see fit.
So, without any further delay, here are my top five right handed starter pitchers and the reason(s) why each made my list.
5) Johnny Cueto: Cueto is possibly the most underrated pitcher in the Majors. Cueto has been in the Show over parts of five seasons, and is only 26 years old. He has a career win-loss record of 60-46, an ERA of 3.57, and he has struck out 702 batters in 904 IP. While his stats don't seem overly impressive, the stats do display the numbers of a work horse. Cueto made my list because he is entering the prime of his career, and has displayed phenomenal potential over the last two seasons. Over the past two seasons, Cueto has compiled an ERA of around 2.55, pitching 373 innings, a win-loss record of 28-14, and has struck out 274 batters. He finished fourth in the Cy Young Award voting this year, however he has never won a major award, or appeared in an All-Star game. Despite this, Cueto has posted excellent numbers for the Cincinatti Reds in Great American Ballpark, which is well renowned as a hitter's park. Cueto clearly flies below the radar, but nonetheless, he is very deserving of claiming the number five spot on my list.
4) R.A. Dickey: Dickey like Cueto is a pitcher whose career stats are underwhelming for an Ace at first glance. Seeing as Dickey has posted the following career numbers: ERA: 3.96, 1,059.1 IP, a win-loss record of 61-56, and he has only struck out 739 batters. While Dickey is38, he managed to win the NL CYA, make his first All-Star game appearance, and he struck out a league leading 230 batters. Additionally, over the last three seasons, Dickey has compiled these statistics: An ERA of 2.95, a win-loss record of 39-28, he has pitched 616.2 innings, and struck out 468 batters. He has posted these statistics while playing with a sub-par club, the New York Mets, and henceforth he surpasses Cueto and lands at number four on my list.
3) Matt Cain: Cain appeared in one of my recent blog entries, so not as much detail is needed concerning him. However, I will say this, Cain is one of the most consistent pitchers in the MLB. He has played a huge role in helping the San Francisco Giants secure two World Series Championships in three years, has thrown a perfect game, and made three All-Star appearance over parts of eight MLB seasons. And while Cain plays in AT&T Park, which is regarded as a pitcher's park, the guy just knows how to flat out pitch. He does not has a low to mid 90's fastball and off-speed pitches with good movement. He processes these career stats: an ERA of 3.27, a win-loss record of 85-78, 1,536.2 IP, and 1,278 batters struck out. Over the last three seasons, these are Cain's stats: an ERA of 2.94, a win-loss record of 41-27, 664.1 IP, an 548 batters struck out. Cain is a consistent force for the Giants, and it is that consistency that secures Cain at the third spot on my list.
2) Jered Weaver: Weaver has been an excellent pitcher over parts of seven MLB Seasons. He has posted these numbers thus far in his career: an ERA of 3.24, a win-loss record of 102-52, pitched 1,320.1 innings, and struck out 1,119 batters. He pitches in Angel Stadium, and this park is basically a neutral site for pitchers and hitters alike. Weaver is a similar pitcher to Cain, he throws a low to mid 90's fastball, but has quite a few breaking pitches with good movement. Perhaps though, the most impressive thing about Weaver is his past three seasons. He has compiled an ERA of 2.75, a win-loss record of 51-25, pitched 648.2 innings, and struck out 573 batters. Furthermore, Weaver has appeared in the All-Star game each of the last three seasons, and finished in the Top Five of the American League CYA voting (placing 5th, 2nd, and 3rd respectively). Additionally, Weaver threw a No-Hitter this year, lead the league in winning percentage, had the lowest hit per 9 innings against (H/9), and Walk Plus Innings Pitched (WHIP) at the age of 29. Weaver may not be as well known as the number one pitcher on my list, but It could be debated that Weaver is possibly better than the guy who tops this list...
ERA+ each of the last two seasons. Additionally, Verlander lead the league in wins, winning percentage, ERA, H/9 and WHIP in 2011 (Values indicated by the chart below). During the 2011 season he secured the AL CY and MVP Award. Also, Verlander has placed in the Top 3 of the CYA voting three of the last four seasons (finishing 1st, 2nd, and 3rd respectively). So while Weaver may be a better pitcher than Verlander in some respects, I am confident in my choice to place him as the current top right handed starting pitcher on my list.
| Year | Age | W | L | IP | SO | Awards | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 26 | 19 | 9 | .679 | 3.45 | 240.0 | 269 | 131 | 1.175 | 8.2 | AS,CYA-3,MVP-20 |
| 2010 | 27 | 18 | 9 | .667 | 3.37 | 224.1 | 219 | 124 | 1.163 | 7.6 | AS,CYA-11 |
| 2011 | 28 | 24 | 5 | .828 | 2.40 | 251.0 | 250 | 172 | 0.920 | 6.2 | AS,CYA-1,MVP-1 |
| 2012 | 29 | 17 | 8 | .680 | 2.64 | 238.1 | 239 | 160 | 1.057 | 7.3 | AS,CYA-2,MVP-8 |
| 8 Yrs | 124 | 65 | .656 | 3.40 | 1553.2 | 1454 | 128 | 1.173 | 7.8 | ||
| 162 Game Avg. | 18 | 10 | .656 | 3.40 | 228 | 213 | 128 | 1.173 | 7.8 | ||
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/20/2013.
Five Additional Considerations (No Particular Order):
2) Chris Carpenter: He too was hampered by injury and only made three starts, but he helped lead the St. Louis Cardinals in 2011, and has been a work horse throughout his career. However, he will soon turn 38.
3) Adam Wainwright: One of Carpenter's teammates, he did not pitch at all in 2011, and he has a subpar 2012, but he may regain form, as he is only 31 years old.
4) Kris Medlen: The 26 year old is entering the prime of his career, and he was the Atlanta Braves "Ace in the hole," posting a 1.57 ERA, and pitching 138 innings. However, he missed my list because he did not pitch the whole season at the MLB level, but keep an eye on this guy in the 2013 season.
5) James Shields: There may be better candidates worth mentioning, but "Big Game James" comes to mind because he is an innings eater, a competitor, and he is just a year removed from posting a 2.82 ERA, is onl, and finishing third in the AL CYA voting. Additionally, he just recently turned 31 years old.
Monday, January 14, 2013
Bargins From the 2012 Free Agent Market in MLB Position Players
While there were bargains on the free agent market for relievers, there were also many bargains for position players as well. It's more difficult to compare position by position, so I am going to attempt a general overview. I will look at players such as A.J. Pierzynski, Mike Napoli, Cody Ross, David Ross, and Jonny Gomes.
A.J. Pierzynski: Pierzynski may be the best bargain from this free agent class. He signed a deal with the Texas Rangers, which was worth $7.5 million. While he will be 36 going into next season, he is durable. Pierzynski has not played in fewer than 114 games since becoming a full time catcher, and he played in 135 games last year at the age of 35. Pierzynski had a career year. He posted a Batting Average of .278, an On-Base Percentage of .326, and an On-Base Plus Slugging Percentage of .827, and he amassed a career high 27 HomeRuns. That's about the best production a team is gonna get from a backstop, now on to David Ross.
David Ross: Ross compares nicely to Pierzynski. Ross will also be 36 at the start of next season. He will earn $3.1 million while playing for the Boston Red Sox. This was a good signing for the Red Sox. They picked up an excellent defensive catcher with a strong and accurate arm, and he is a veteran as well. Ross will make slightly over 1/3 of what Perzinski will but the offensive production is not worth the contract. Ross posted a BA of .256, an OBP of .321, and an OPS of .770, and he totaled 9 HR. Those are premium numbers for a backup catcher, and the Red Sox didn't overpay much, but an Average Annual Value of $2.75 million would have been more sensible.
Mike Napoli: Napoli is an interesting case. His deal with the Boston Red Sox has not yet been made official. However, the expected deal is supposed to be for $39 million/3 years. Napoli has age on his side compared to the two players above. Napoli is 31 years old. He is a catcher, however he is expected to play first base for the Red Sox if/when the deal becomes official. Napoli underperformed in his contract year, posting a .227 BA, .343 OBP, and an OPS of .812. He also mashed 24 HR. This is nice production from a catcher, but a major step back from his 2011 campaign. Where the slash line was .320/.414/1.046, all while hitting 30 HR. Napoli had a down year, and he should not have cashed in this big, but this contract speaks for the market especially since Napoli is extremely injury prone.
Cody Ross: Cody Ross is a versatile outfielder who can play all three outfield positions, but Ross may very well be nothing more than a platoon player for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Despite this fact, Ross cashed in on a solid year. Receiving a contract worth $25 million/3 years. He posted a slash line of .267/.326/.807. He played regularly with Boston this year hitting 22 HR, but keep in mind in parts of 9 seasons, Ross has only hit 20 plus HR three times.
Jonny Gomes: Jonny Gomes is a platoon player in either outfield corner, but unlike Ross he is a left handed hitter. Gomes signed a contract that is probably accurate concerning his value. Gomes signed a contract with the Boston Red Sox for $10 million/2 years. Gomes posted a slash line of .262/.377/.491. He hit four HR less than Cody Ross, hitting 18 HR. That's nice production from a platoon player, and he comes at a reasonable price.
All of these players are respectable in their own right. However, evaluating the value of each contract and player, Pierzynski is the best bargain seemingly, and no contract is majorly overpriced. However, Jonny Gomes contract is more valuable than Cody Ross's for similar production.
A.J. Pierzynski: Pierzynski may be the best bargain from this free agent class. He signed a deal with the Texas Rangers, which was worth $7.5 million. While he will be 36 going into next season, he is durable. Pierzynski has not played in fewer than 114 games since becoming a full time catcher, and he played in 135 games last year at the age of 35. Pierzynski had a career year. He posted a Batting Average of .278, an On-Base Percentage of .326, and an On-Base Plus Slugging Percentage of .827, and he amassed a career high 27 HomeRuns. That's about the best production a team is gonna get from a backstop, now on to David Ross.
David Ross: Ross compares nicely to Pierzynski. Ross will also be 36 at the start of next season. He will earn $3.1 million while playing for the Boston Red Sox. This was a good signing for the Red Sox. They picked up an excellent defensive catcher with a strong and accurate arm, and he is a veteran as well. Ross will make slightly over 1/3 of what Perzinski will but the offensive production is not worth the contract. Ross posted a BA of .256, an OBP of .321, and an OPS of .770, and he totaled 9 HR. Those are premium numbers for a backup catcher, and the Red Sox didn't overpay much, but an Average Annual Value of $2.75 million would have been more sensible.
Mike Napoli: Napoli is an interesting case. His deal with the Boston Red Sox has not yet been made official. However, the expected deal is supposed to be for $39 million/3 years. Napoli has age on his side compared to the two players above. Napoli is 31 years old. He is a catcher, however he is expected to play first base for the Red Sox if/when the deal becomes official. Napoli underperformed in his contract year, posting a .227 BA, .343 OBP, and an OPS of .812. He also mashed 24 HR. This is nice production from a catcher, but a major step back from his 2011 campaign. Where the slash line was .320/.414/1.046, all while hitting 30 HR. Napoli had a down year, and he should not have cashed in this big, but this contract speaks for the market especially since Napoli is extremely injury prone.
Cody Ross: Cody Ross is a versatile outfielder who can play all three outfield positions, but Ross may very well be nothing more than a platoon player for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Despite this fact, Ross cashed in on a solid year. Receiving a contract worth $25 million/3 years. He posted a slash line of .267/.326/.807. He played regularly with Boston this year hitting 22 HR, but keep in mind in parts of 9 seasons, Ross has only hit 20 plus HR three times.
Jonny Gomes: Jonny Gomes is a platoon player in either outfield corner, but unlike Ross he is a left handed hitter. Gomes signed a contract that is probably accurate concerning his value. Gomes signed a contract with the Boston Red Sox for $10 million/2 years. Gomes posted a slash line of .262/.377/.491. He hit four HR less than Cody Ross, hitting 18 HR. That's nice production from a platoon player, and he comes at a reasonable price.
All of these players are respectable in their own right. However, evaluating the value of each contract and player, Pierzynski is the best bargain seemingly, and no contract is majorly overpriced. However, Jonny Gomes contract is more valuable than Cody Ross's for similar production.
Monday, January 7, 2013
Bargins from the 2012 Free Agent Market in MLB:Relievers
Obviously there have been a ton of overpays to free agents on the Free Agent Market. While there have been many lucrative contracts inked this offseason, there have been a few signings which appear to be bargins. (Players who were Non-Tendered will not be covered in this post, since those players are expected to sign for less money than the previous year. Trades will also be excluded).
Ryan Madson and Jason Grilli are both free agent relievers who appear to be bargins.
Ryan Madson: Madson signed a one year deal with the Angels for the upcoming 2013 season, and he is expected to step in and become their closer. This deal is a bargin compared to the likes of Brandon League and Jonathan Broxton (more on that in a bit), however the deal comes with risk. Madson has only been a closer for one full season with the Philadelphia Phillies, and as a matter of fact, he filled the role nicely. Stepping in for the injured Brad Lidge, Madson saved 32 games while only having two blown saves, had an ERA of 2.37, 62K, and pitched 60.2 innings. That's impressive, but Madson never threw a single pitch in 2012 for the Cincinnati Reds, and he is coming off of Tommy John surgery. And while Madson has only closed for one season full time, he has been a solid reliever over his career. Posting a 3.59 ERA, accumulating 547K, and pitching 630 innings. Still, this is a nice low risk high reward move by the Angels, as Madson will make a base salary of $3.25 million and a maximum of $6.75 million.
Jason Grilli: Grilli is a nice baseball story, seeing as how he has been a journeyman over the course of his career. Grilli made his MLB debut in 2000 for the Marlins at the age of 23, and he was not very effective in limited action. The same can be said about Grilli's 2001 season. After 2001, Grilli did not appear in the Majors again until 2004 when he piched gor the White Sox. After 2004, Grilli found a home in Detroit, and he began to become more consistent. Detroit traded Grilli to the Rockies in 2008 and he pitched effectively. However, in 2009 Grilli regressed and he spent the next year and a half in the minors, but he has been a staple in the Pirates bullpen since. Last season, Grilli pitched to a 2.91 ERA, recorded 90K, and pitched 58.2 inning. Grilli's career stat line isn't going to wow anyone, as he has a 4.34 ERA, 389K, and 448IP, but he seems to have found his mojo in Pittsburgh. Moreover, the Pirates need Grilli to step up as their closer following the trade of Joel Hanrahan to the Boston Red Sox. Grilli's contract is for $6.75 million/2 years, and I believe the 36 year old is up to the task.
Jonathan Broxton and Brandon League were both signed to more lucrative offers than Ryan Madson and Jason Grilli were and for good reason. For starters, both Broxton and League are in their late twenties(younger than Madson and Grilli) and they both performed very well after being traded this past season.
Despite the reasons mentioned above, I am not psyched about the contract these two inked, and that is not to take anything away from these formidable relievers because relievers are so volatile.
Jonathan Broxton: Broxton is a two time All-Star, deservedly so, and he has endured elbow surgery. Broxton has posted pretty dominant numbers in his career. Broxton has a career ERA of 3.10, 548K, and he has pitched 450 innings. These numbers are very respectable but compared to Madson's numbers, 3 years/20 million(guaranteed) seems like a mistake.
Brandon League: League has been an All-Star once, in 2011. League has spent his entire MLB career in the American League with the Seattle Mariners, except for the last half of the 2012 season. League has a career ERA of 3.60, has struck out 309 batters, and has pitched 414.2 innings. League's contract is valued at 3 years/$19 million(guaranteed) which is slightly less than Broxton. But the LA Dodgers had plenty of money to spend, so more power to them.
Broxton and League are very respectable relief pitchers, but Madson and Grilli are respectable in their own right. Each team signed each reliever in order to help their club, and each reliever is very capable of doing so, but for such a volatile role, low risk, high reward is the best way to go.
Ryan Madson: Madson signed a one year deal with the Angels for the upcoming 2013 season, and he is expected to step in and become their closer. This deal is a bargin compared to the likes of Brandon League and Jonathan Broxton (more on that in a bit), however the deal comes with risk. Madson has only been a closer for one full season with the Philadelphia Phillies, and as a matter of fact, he filled the role nicely. Stepping in for the injured Brad Lidge, Madson saved 32 games while only having two blown saves, had an ERA of 2.37, 62K, and pitched 60.2 innings. That's impressive, but Madson never threw a single pitch in 2012 for the Cincinnati Reds, and he is coming off of Tommy John surgery. And while Madson has only closed for one season full time, he has been a solid reliever over his career. Posting a 3.59 ERA, accumulating 547K, and pitching 630 innings. Still, this is a nice low risk high reward move by the Angels, as Madson will make a base salary of $3.25 million and a maximum of $6.75 million.
Jason Grilli: Grilli is a nice baseball story, seeing as how he has been a journeyman over the course of his career. Grilli made his MLB debut in 2000 for the Marlins at the age of 23, and he was not very effective in limited action. The same can be said about Grilli's 2001 season. After 2001, Grilli did not appear in the Majors again until 2004 when he piched gor the White Sox. After 2004, Grilli found a home in Detroit, and he began to become more consistent. Detroit traded Grilli to the Rockies in 2008 and he pitched effectively. However, in 2009 Grilli regressed and he spent the next year and a half in the minors, but he has been a staple in the Pirates bullpen since. Last season, Grilli pitched to a 2.91 ERA, recorded 90K, and pitched 58.2 inning. Grilli's career stat line isn't going to wow anyone, as he has a 4.34 ERA, 389K, and 448IP, but he seems to have found his mojo in Pittsburgh. Moreover, the Pirates need Grilli to step up as their closer following the trade of Joel Hanrahan to the Boston Red Sox. Grilli's contract is for $6.75 million/2 years, and I believe the 36 year old is up to the task.
Jonathan Broxton
Brandon League
Despite the reasons mentioned above, I am not psyched about the contract these two inked, and that is not to take anything away from these formidable relievers because relievers are so volatile.
Jonathan Broxton: Broxton is a two time All-Star, deservedly so, and he has endured elbow surgery. Broxton has posted pretty dominant numbers in his career. Broxton has a career ERA of 3.10, 548K, and he has pitched 450 innings. These numbers are very respectable but compared to Madson's numbers, 3 years/20 million(guaranteed) seems like a mistake.
Brandon League: League has been an All-Star once, in 2011. League has spent his entire MLB career in the American League with the Seattle Mariners, except for the last half of the 2012 season. League has a career ERA of 3.60, has struck out 309 batters, and has pitched 414.2 innings. League's contract is valued at 3 years/$19 million(guaranteed) which is slightly less than Broxton. But the LA Dodgers had plenty of money to spend, so more power to them.
Broxton and League are very respectable relief pitchers, but Madson and Grilli are respectable in their own right. Each team signed each reliever in order to help their club, and each reliever is very capable of doing so, but for such a volatile role, low risk, high reward is the best way to go.
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